Cincinnati @ Louisville

[bearcat jeff]

Well it's finally here! Both teams come in on a roll with both overcoming personnel and roster issues.

Louisville is now using Luke Hancock at the 4 and since the move their offense has taken off. They shoot nearly 38% from the three point line and get to the ft line at a high rate. With 5 players averaging double figures, the Bearcat defense better come ready to play.

Guys like Kevin Johnson and Jermaine Sanders will be huge off the bench. Troy Caupain needs to hold serve against Terry Rozier and GG has to keep Chris Jones in check. The SK/Russ Smith match up will be huge and probably the one on the perimeter most people watch. Smith averages 18 ppg but also over 4 apg.

Inside, outside of guard penetration, Montrezl Harrell is the man. At 6'8" and 235 lbs, with loads of athleticism he is a match up nightmare if Justin Jackson isn't available. If JJ can't go Titus Rubles will likely get the call. Harrell averages 12 ppg and 8.5 rebounds and just 2.2 fouls. He makes 62% of his shots because most of them are dunks. He, like Jackson, does not shoot well from the ft line. Well over half his rebounds are of the offensive variety so it is imperative to box him out when Louisville drives to the basket.

To me this game will come down to 4 things. Turnovers (Russ Smith is prone to turn the ball over), Limiting Louisville from 3 and the ft line, not allowing offensive rebounds, and not letting Luke Hancock to go off.

Whoever guards Hancock (Rubles or Sanders) cannot allow him to get free. The Louisville offense goes to a whole new dimension when he is scoring at will.

On offense UC can't turn the ball over and allow Louisville to run out for easy points. If they do it could turn into a blowout. They need 2 guys beside SK to score double figures and the bench needs to produce.

Thomas again will be an X factor. His length and athleticism make him a match up problem for Louisville. Caupain and Sanders need to be productive off the bench and Kevin Johnson needs to lock down on defense.

Overall I think these teams match up well. The game will come down to a couple things and I think it will be a battle. Frankly, I think the team with less turnovers, who makes their ft's and gets bench scoring will win. No way in my opinion JJ doesn't play. How effective can he be? It's always a tough task to win at the Yum. I have to give Louisville the edge but with both teams having key people gone I think UC matches up very well. It will all come down to execution.

[ralph1950]

I have to go with Louisville to win this one. However, I did not believe UC would win at Memphis.

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Originally Posted by bearcat jeff

Well it's finally here! Both teams come in on a roll with both overcoming personnel and roster issues.

Louisville is now using Luke Hancock at the 4 and since the move their offense has taken off. They shoot nearly 38% from the three point line and get to the ft line at a high rate. With 5 players averaging double figures, the Bearcat defense better come ready to play.

Guys like Kevin Johnson and Jermaine Sanders will be huge off the bench. Troy Caupain needs to hold serve against Terry Rozier and GG has to keep Chris Jones in check. The SK/Russ Smith match up will be huge and probably the one on the perimeter most people watch. Smith averages 18 ppg but also over 4 apg.

Inside, outside of guard penetration, Montrezl Harrell is the man. At 6'8" and 235 lbs, with loads of athleticism he is a match up nightmare if Justin Jackson isn't available. If JJ can't go Titus Rubles will likely get the call. Harrell averages 12 ppg and 8.5 rebounds and just 2.2 fouls. He makes 62% of his shots because most of them are dunks. He, like Jackson, does not shoot well from the ft line. Well over half his rebounds are of the offensive variety so it is imperative to box him out when Louisville drives to the basket.

To me this game will come down to 4 things. Turnovers (Russ Smith is prone to turn the ball over), Limiting Louisville from 3 and the ft line, not allowing offensive rebounds, and not letting Luke Hancock to go off.

Whoever guards Hancock (Rubles or Sanders) cannot allow him to get free. The Louisville offense goes to a whole new dimension when he is scoring at will.

On offense UC can't turn the ball over and allow Louisville to run out for easy points. If they do it could turn into a blowout. They need 2 guys beside SK to score double figures and the bench needs to produce.

Thomas again will be an X factor. His length and athleticism make him a match up problem for Louisville. Caupain and Sanders need to be productive off the bench and Kevin Johnson needs to lock down on defense.

Overall I think these teams match up well. The game will come down to a couple things and I think it will be a battle. Frankly, I think the team with less turnovers, who mkes their ft's and gets bench scoring will win. No way in my opinion JJ doesn't play. How effective can he be? It's always a tough task to win at the Yum. I have to give Louisville the edge but with both teams having key people gone I think UC matches up very well. It will all come down to execution.

Jeff, enjoyed your take analysis but have to add a few things.

1. Can't allow Louisville to dictate tempo. They will try to press us to speed up the game. We can't win a running game with Louisville.

2. The reason they are such a good offensive rebounding team is because teams are forced to play help defense because of the penetration. This makes boxing out very difficult. Its also why they get to the FT line so often.Our perimeter defenders need to limit drives to the hoop.

3. Hopefully this will be a ugly BE style of game.

4. I hope your right about JJ. This could be a beat down without him

[#BearcatNation]

With JJ:
UL 68, UC 60

Without JJ:
UL 76, UC 56

I'm predicting a loss regardless, but that doesn't mean I don't think it'll be a great game, and I wouldn't be too shocked to see UC pull it out. But we NEED Jackson to truly compete. Without him, I think we're down 5 minutes in and UL never looks back.

[bearcat jeff]

Originally Posted by WAITE HOYT 2

Jeff, enjoyed your take analysis but have to add a few things.

1. Can't allow Louisville to dictate tempo. They will try to press us to speed up the game. We can't win a running game with Louisville.

2. The reason they are such a good offensive rebounding team is because teams are forced to play help defense because of the penetration. This makes boxing out very difficult. Its also why they get to the FT line so often.Our perimeter defenders need to limit drives to the hoop.

3. Hopefully this will be a ugly BE style of game.

4. I hope your right about JJ. This could be a beat down without him

If Behanan were there I'd agree 100%. With the line up UL is currently playing I think UC can still compete. What JJ gives you is that guy who can swat shots at the rim if the guards get by the perimeter D. Oddly enough, David Nyarsuk could be very valuable in this game. It wouldn't bother me if JJ's ankle is still soft to see him come off the bench.

[Bearcat_NTS]

Jackson (if he goes) vs Harrell

Smith vs Kilpatrick

Rozier vs Caupain

Hancock/Blackshear vs Thomas/Sanders


UC has to win the above match-ups to win the game. I will reserve my prediction until we know if Jackson is going to go or not.

[LaxCat31]

Have we heard anything regarding Lawrence's status for Thursday? I realize it's early in the week, but he could be the advantage we need.

[UCBearcats]

UL - 63
UC - 57

YUM and the home crowd are the difference, we'll get them at the Shoe

[bearcat jeff]

Originally Posted by Bearcat_NTS

Jackson (if he goes) vs Harrell

Smith vs Kilpatrick

Rozier vs Caupain

Hancock/Blackshear vs Thomas/Sanders


UC has to win the above match-ups to win the game. I will reserve my prediction until we know if Jackson is going to go or not.

Agreed. Got to break even there or win 3 of 4 to have a shot. I too will make a prediction on Thursday.

[Bearcat Rob]

Weather its a low scoring battle like Pit, a great all around game like at Memphis, or its a shootout like at temple this team finds ways to win. This team is motivated to prove they are a top ten team. We come out firing and win this game