2020 Bracketology

cincrulz11 · 02-20-2020, 10:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedziobs

I ran some scenarios on Torvik. According to his model, our season basically hinges on the game at Houston. If we win out, we are in. If we lose one more game to Wichita St, USF, or Temple, we are still barely in. If we lose at Houston, we are out. Might not be accurate, but that's what the model shows. Of course, that's before the effect of any bid stealers.

we are probably going to be 7-8 point underdogs at houston.

we've really played ourselves into a spot where we gotta win 4 in a row now or 3-4 in a row in the conference tournament.

not a fun spot to be.

**sedziobs** · 02-21-2020, 09:21 AM

Although brackretmatrix hasn't updated, individual updates are coming in. It's interesting to see how people interpret our strange 6-0 Q2 and four bad loss resume. Dave Ommen and Jerry Palm have us in the first four out. 131sports has us as the last team in. We're still one of the last four byes in Lunardi's bracket. So obviously bracketologists don't think our season is over.

ervins84 · 02-21-2020, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedziobs

Although brackretmatrix hasn't updated, individual updates are coming in. It's interesting to see how people interpret our strange 6-0 Q2 and four bad loss resume. Dave Ommen and Jerry Palm have us in the first four out. 131sports has us as the last team in. We're still one of the last four byes in Lunardi's bracket. So obviously bracketologists don't think our season is over.

Projecting forward, the other issue is we're not exactly playing well. There's multiple games besides Houston left that we could easily lose that will not be good losses (usf, Temple), on top of the Wichita game easily being a loss. Losing 2-4 more games is well within the bounds of expected finishes.

I have no idea what will happen if we won every game except Houston, but at this point I have no reason to believe that is a realistic possibility.

**sedziobs** · 02-22-2020, 11:10 AM

Bracketmatrix updated. We're still clinging to an at-large spot, included in 43 of 85 brackets updated since Thursday. Georgetown is right behind us with 35, Purdue with 30, and Miss St with 29.

justinhub2003 · 02-22-2020, 05:11 PM

This is not a troll. But we should add UCLA to the list of teams competing for the bubble

Just beat #18 Colorado at home:

**sedziobs** · 02-22-2020, 05:18 PM

Agreed. I'll start tracking them in the games of importance thread. I also added Providence and South Carolina, who have played themselves onto the bubble.

justinhub2003 · 02-22-2020, 08:11 PM

Lunardi just released a update on Twitter

UC is first four out.

WSU is last 4 bye

Battle of the bubble again

UCLA is the last 4 out as well

https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/1231374480934608897

**sedziobs** · 02-22-2020, 08:19 PM

That tweet has Cincinnati highlighted red meaning "lost today". Uh, no. Also Richmond lost since he posted that. They were in his last four in. I wonder if that's enough to put us back in. Things are changing by the minute.

justinhub2003 · 02-22-2020, 08:21 PM

We just have to figure out a way to get in and also the league needs more then 2 teams in,

It be really embarrassing if the WCC, & A10 got in more

cincrulz11 · 02-24-2020, 08:00 AM

Lunardi bumped us from last team in to 10 seed after yesterday.

not sure how that works. lunardi doesn't have a great 5 year track record, but last year he actually had one of the best. maybe he's better with the new system.

02-21-2020, 09:21 AM	#82
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,395	Although brackretmatrix hasn't updated, individual updates are coming in. It's interesting to see how people interpret our strange 6-0 Q2 and four bad loss resume. Dave Ommen and Jerry Palm have us in the first four out. 131sports has us as the last team in. We're still one of the last four byes in Lunardi's bracket. So obviously bracketologists don't think our season is over.

02-22-2020, 11:10 AM	#84
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,395	Bracketmatrix updated. We're still clinging to an at-large spot, included in 43 of 85 brackets updated since Thursday. Georgetown is right behind us with 35, Purdue with 30, and Miss St with 29.

02-22-2020, 05:11 PM	#85
justinhub2003 Epic Member Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 5,583	This is not a troll. But we should add UCLA to the list of teams competing for the bubble Just beat #18 Colorado at home:

02-22-2020, 05:18 PM	#86
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,395	Agreed. I'll start tracking them in the games of importance thread. I also added Providence and South Carolina, who have played themselves onto the bubble.

02-22-2020, 08:11 PM	#87
justinhub2003 Epic Member Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 5,583	Lunardi just released a update on Twitter UC is first four out. WSU is last 4 bye Battle of the bubble again UCLA is the last 4 out as well https://twitter.com/ESPNLunardi/status/1231374480934608897

02-22-2020, 08:19 PM	#88
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,395	That tweet has Cincinnati highlighted red meaning "lost today". Uh, no. Also Richmond lost since he posted that. They were in his last four in. I wonder if that's enough to put us back in. Things are changing by the minute.

02-22-2020, 08:21 PM	#89
justinhub2003 Epic Member Join Date: Oct 2015 Posts: 5,583	We just have to figure out a way to get in and also the league needs more then 2 teams in, It be really embarrassing if the WCC, & A10 got in more

02-24-2020, 08:00 AM	#90
cincrulz11 Epic Member Join Date: Mar 2013 Posts: 4,329	Lunardi bumped us from last team in to 10 seed after yesterday. not sure how that works. lunardi doesn't have a great 5 year track record, but last year he actually had one of the best. maybe he's better with the new system.