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Old 04-28-2022, 05:42 PM   #251
waterhead
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Yeah, I say pretty much every year that fans overestimate the impact transfers will have and how good they are or will be. As you say there just aren't that many good transfers.

My preferred site for transfer rankings (mostly because I can't find another free site that does it well) is EvanMiya.com, they have Nolley at #21, Phinisee #105 and Ezikpe #140. I said early on the for a guy to have a major impact they probably had to be top 60-80.

Fans don't seem to care that much about stats or what a guy actually did, they look at a transfer, see a shiny new player and think that player will be a major upgrade.

Even Nolley who I'd say is an A+ addition has a number of fans expecting him to be a point-forward, which I can't see him being good at.

Phinisee has fans loving him (and expecting him to start) for his defense, despite the fact that MAW is arguably just as good if not better defensively.

Fans think Ezikpe will be great at rebounding (despite putting up worse rebound percentage numbers than Ody/Lakhin in a worse conference) and defensively (which I doubt).

That's not accounting for the fact that even good transfers can struggle because they are coming into a new environment and learning a new system.

I feel like a pessimist, but on the other hand I'm an optimist on returning players (especially Lakhin, Ody and Hensley) so I guess it evens out. Player development in my opinion is quite a bit more reliable than transfers, but many fans seem to think it's the other way around.
I agree with your point about shiny new objects! That pretty well sums it up. However, with Nolley I would not mind seeing point forward for 5 minutes a half (if he can do it) if not DDJ 5 minutes per half. IDC which one really...its just to get length on the wing with DDJ in game.

With Rob all I can say is that most reports are that he is a great defender but his stats may pop about the same as MAW who wasn't tasked with guarding the best of the best. Newman was taking that on. It seems Rob was put on some of the best of the Big10 guards. So Miya stats could be favoring MAW when the situations are different. Not trying to be shiny object guy just reasonable.

As for Kalu he may not have been as good of a rebounder but not bad either. But his block rate was better as well as scoring. So we can't boil it down to rebounding only. Again...not pie in the sky just real numbers here.

My guess is small contributions. Mild improvements. Other than Nolley who I think changes our dynamics quite a bit.

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Old 04-28-2022, 06:27 PM   #252
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I agree with your point about shiny new objects! That pretty well sums it up. However, with Nolley I would not mind seeing point forward for 5 minutes a half (if he can do it) if not DDJ 5 minutes per half. IDC which one really...its just to get length on the wing with DDJ in game.

With Rob all I can say is that most reports are that he is a great defender but his stats may pop about the same as MAW who wasn't tasked with guarding the best of the best. Newman was taking that on. It seems Rob was put on some of the best of the Big10 guards. So Miya stats could be favoring MAW when the situations are different. Not trying to be shiny object guy just reasonable.

As for Kalu he may not have been as good of a rebounder but not bad either. But his block rate was better as well as scoring. So we can't boil it down to rebounding only. Again...not pie in the sky just real numbers here.

My guess is small contributions. Mild improvements. Other than Nolley who I think changes our dynamics quite a bit.

On the other hand, MAW played over twice as many minutes which meant more fatigue. He was our highest rated defensive guard and a top 1-3 defender on the team by almost every measure on EvanMiya (MAW, Newman and Ado were all very close), though Newman was better until his injury led to him having a really bad 5 or so game stretch.

Rob wasn't their highest rated defensive guard (though he was top 3 in most measures as well) and his lack of minutes meant he could go all out when he was in.

I won't claim MAW is a better defender, but I also don't believe it's possible to claim Phinisee is. Until we see them play (and maybe not even then) it's going to be unclear. My point is you can argue either of them based on different criteria, but many fans have already crowned Phinisee the clear starter based on his defense. This despite MAW being a slightly better shooter, with better assist and TO rates.

Nolley I see as best off the catch-and-shoot (most guys are though). I'm not sure he's a good enough shooter off the dribble to be a threat as a point forward. His TO rate is also uncomfortably high for a point forward. Plus he's too willing to take long jumpers. Maybe he can do it, but I wouldn't bet on it. DDJ on the other hand I think would be better as a PG and the team would probably be better off with him playing there (given that MAW and Phinisee are probably our two worst shooters).
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Old 04-28-2022, 06:50 PM   #253
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My proposal of Nolley as point forward isn't because I think it best suits his skills. It's just a way to have DDJ be the nominal PG while playing off ball. It's really a way to get Newman more minutes at the expense of MAW/Phinisee.
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Old 04-28-2022, 06:57 PM   #254
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My proposal of Nolley as point forward isn't because I think it best suits his skills. It's just a way to have DDJ be the nominal PG while playing off ball. It's really a way to get Newman more minutes at the expense of MAW/Phinisee.
That I support. Whatever it takes to get DDJ to be the (nominal) PG and play Newman/Nolley at the same time. I'd prefer to avoid running out an undersized pair of guards (Phinisee/DDJ) regardless of how good Phinisee is on defense. Great defense can only do so much against a guy who is 5 inches taller.
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Old 04-28-2022, 08:01 PM   #255
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That I support. Whatever it takes to get DDJ to be the (nominal) PG and play Newman/Nolley at the same time. I'd prefer to avoid running out an undersized pair of guards (Phinisee/DDJ) regardless of how good Phinisee is on defense. Great defense can only do so much against a guy who is 5 inches taller.
It would also give Skillings/Reed another avenue for playing time if they show they belong on the court. I was mostly disappointed with bringing in Phinisee because it signaled that DDJ was locked in at SG. Nolley could be a way out of that, but I have no idea if Wes would even consider it.
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Old 04-28-2022, 08:23 PM   #256
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It would also give Skillings/Reed another avenue for playing time if they show they belong on the court. I was mostly disappointed with bringing in Phinisee because it signaled that DDJ was locked in at SG. Nolley could be a way out of that, but I have no idea if Wes would even consider it.
I'm curious how much of a chance Wes will give Skillings and Reed (and maybe even Vik, Ody and Hensley). Last year he pretty much set the rotation at the start of the season and didn't change it a lot. That would seem to favor veterans over young guys if he does the same thing next year.

I want to see young guys (the high ceiling/low floor guys) get minutes and develop. A lot of our veterans are low ceiling/high floor guys and even best case probably aren't going to get us farther than NCAA bubble team next year.
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Old 04-28-2022, 09:35 PM   #257
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On the other hand, MAW played over twice as many minutes which meant more fatigue. He was our highest rated defensive guard and a top 1-3 defender on the team by almost every measure on EvanMiya (MAW, Newman and Ado were all very close), though Newman was better until his injury led to him having a really bad 5 or so game stretch.

Rob wasn't their highest rated defensive guard (though he was top 3 in most measures as well) and his lack of minutes meant he could go all out when he was in.

I won't claim MAW is a better defender, but I also don't believe it's possible to claim Phinisee is. Until we see them play (and maybe not even then) it's going to be unclear. My point is you can argue either of them based on different criteria, but many fans have already crowned Phinisee the clear starter based on his defense. This despite MAW being a slightly better shooter, with better assist and TO rates.

Nolley I see as best off the catch-and-shoot (most guys are though). I'm not sure he's a good enough shooter off the dribble to be a threat as a point forward. His TO rate is also uncomfortably high for a point forward. Plus he's too willing to take long jumpers. Maybe he can do it, but I wouldn't bet on it. DDJ on the other hand I think would be better as a PG and the team would probably be better off with him playing there (given that MAW and Phinisee are probably our two worst shooters).
I donít put a lot of stock in D ratings off algorithms. You canít measure on ball D with stats. Offense is a lot different. D is a crap shoot. I have seen JD out there as a very good defender and that is just not true at all. And we all know that

The IU fanbase thinks Rob is excellent on D and I am guessing our coaches do too.
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Old 04-29-2022, 09:33 AM   #258
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I donít put a lot of stock in D ratings off algorithms. You canít measure on ball D with stats. Offense is a lot different. D is a crap shoot. I have seen JD out there as a very good defender and that is just not true at all. And we all know that

The IU fanbase thinks Rob is excellent on D and I am guessing our coaches do too.
Over on 247 someone posted synergy defense grades and Davenport graded out as good. Of course synergy isn't perfect either (it focuses more on 1v1 defense than team defense), but it's probably the best we've got.

Davenport wasn't great on defense, but I think he was better than a lot of fans think. When he was getting beat (due to mental errors or being undersized) it really stood out and that gets remembered. But he did play solid defense a lot of the time.

I'd like to see the synergy numbers for Phinisee, Ezikpe and Nolley but our local poster who pays for synergy (JustinHub) has pretty much disappeared after Brannen got fired.
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Old 04-29-2022, 10:20 AM   #259
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I donít put a lot of stock in D ratings off algorithms. You canít measure on ball D with stats. Offense is a lot different. D is a crap shoot. I have seen JD out there as a very good defender and that is just not true at all. And we all know that

The IU fanbase thinks Rob is excellent on D and I am guessing our coaches do too.
I think combining EvanMiya which is team based stats (how well does the team play when you are on the floor) and also dependent of how well the guy subbing in/out for you plays and Synergy which is more individual based would be the best way to get a reasonable picture. Unfortunately synergy is paid.

Phinisee is probably excellent at 1v1 defense on the perimeter, pressuring the dribbler which is what fans say. But he's also undersized (and would be playing with an undersized DDJ here), so his interior/switching defense is probably going to be worse than MAW's (who is in turn worse at ball pressure defense).
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Old 04-29-2022, 10:40 AM   #260
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EvanMiya for the most part matches up with what fans/coaches say. Newman and MAW are two guys who have been praised (by Wes/Brannen) for doing everything right, doing the little things and the things fans don't tend to notice and EvanMiya reflects that.

Ezikpe is the one EvanMiya really gives reason to worry about. EvanMiya is showing red flags all over the place when it comes to Ezikpe. His offensive efficiency was one of the worst on ODU last year, as was his defensive efficiency and he had the worst +/-. Combine that with watching him play some games and that's why I am so negative on him being an impactful player next year.
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