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Old 04-29-2022, 09:06 AM   #91
skyblade
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No promises that I made no mistakes, I'm more confident that I got the starters right as they were almost always in the same order (unless someone was out due to injury). I agree with Waterhead that EvanMiya's +/- does not match the reality, not sure what adjustment they are making. I calculated +/- excluding Ashland (D2) and conference +/- and yes the Davenport conference +/- number is correct (I did a double take when I saw it). Make of it whatever you will.

Name: +/-, +/- (conference)
Ado: 20, -3
DDJ: 48, -4
Newman: 108, 14
MAW: 95, 19
Davenport: 108, 83
Ody: 27, -47
Saunders: 33, -52
Lakhin: 0, -47
Mason: 42, 6
Koval: 55, -28
Hensley: -12, -38


Last edited by skyblade; 04-29-2022 at 09:34 AM. Reason: Excluded the wrong game for D2.
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Old 04-29-2022, 09:30 AM   #92
sedziobs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skyblade View Post
I calculated +/- excluding Alabama A&M (D2)
Do you mean Ashland? Alabama A&M is D1. Either way it looks like there is some kind of adjustment going on since just adding/swapping those games isn't enough to make up the difference. I think it's just that blowout possessions are being excluded.

Quote:
Off Poss: Number of meaningful offensive possessions played.
Def Poss: Number of meaningful defensive possessions played.

One key step that we take to gain the best predictions from our data is to only look at possessions in a game that “mattered”. Analyzing possessions when the game is already well out of hand isn't as valuable to us as possessions when the winner hasn't been decided yet. We use the in-game naive win probability (which assumes that teams are equally matched) in order to assess when a game was out of hand. Once a team has a win probability of at least 99%, we start down-weighting the possessions until the win probability is greater than 99.99%, at which point we discard all possessions entirely.
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Old 04-29-2022, 09:36 AM   #93
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Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
Do you mean Ashland? Alabama A&M is D1. Either way it looks like there is some kind of adjustment going on since just adding/swapping those games isn't enough to make up the difference. I think it's just that blowout possessions are being excluded.
Yeah, I even wrote D2 next to Ashland so I'd remember, then I subtracted out the Alabama A&M numbers and wrote their name here. I corrected it now.

Good finding the adjustment. Excluding blowout possessions would seem to be the more accurate measure.
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Old 04-29-2022, 09:57 AM   #94
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skyblade View Post
Name: +/-, +/- (conference)
Ado: 20, -3
DDJ: 48, -4
Newman: 108, 14
MAW: 95, 19
Davenport: 108, 83
Ody: 27, -47
Saunders: 33, -52
Lakhin: 0, -47
Mason: 42, 6
Koval: 55, -28
Hensley: -12, -38
Everyone is within 25 of EvanMiya, except for Ado who you have 35 pts lower. There were quite a few games where Torvik's win probability reached 99% with a lot of time left (17 mins vs SMU, 15 mins vs X, 18 mins vs Florida A&M, in the first half against Presbyterian).
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Old 04-29-2022, 10:06 AM   #95
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
Everyone is within 25 of EvanMiya, except for Ado who you have 35 pts lower. There were quite a few games where Torvik's win probability reached 99% with a lot of time left (17 mins vs SMU, 15 mins vs X, 18 mins vs Florida A&M, in the first half against Presbyterian).
Yeah, they don't match up exactly, but they are similar enough that it helps to confirm they are using the same data set (only EvanMiya's are adjusted to exclude meaningless possessions).
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Old 04-29-2022, 10:53 AM   #96
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skyblade View Post
No promises that I made no mistakes, I'm more confident that I got the starters right as they were almost always in the same order (unless someone was out due to injury). I agree with Waterhead that EvanMiya's +/- does not match the reality, not sure what adjustment they are making. I calculated +/- excluding Ashland (D2) and conference +/- and yes the Davenport conference +/- number is correct (I did a double take when I saw it). Make of it whatever you will.

Name: +/-, +/- (conference)
Ado: 20, -3
DDJ: 48, -4
Newman: 108, 14
MAW: 95, 19
Davenport: 108, 83
Ody: 27, -47
Saunders: 33, -52
Lakhin: 0, -47
Mason: 42, 6
Koval: 55, -28
Hensley: -12, -38
JD also missed a game as well as Newman. And Newman was on a pretty good streak right before injury and then didn't do a lot for a 6-7 game stretch. He did finish out pretty strong after that.

If you wanted to get real fancy with plus minus it would make sense to average the totals for games played. And even fancier would be to adjust for minutes played. Obviously DDJ, MAW, Newman and JD played the most minutes on the year. Ado played around 10 less minutes per game than these guys.

That is what I was doing. But I didn't adjust for the 4 guys above that were all getting around the same amount of minutes. But if Ado got 60% of what the others were getting I made an adjustment for that. So I had them all averaged by games played and then weighted for minutes.

I can't find my info that I worked on either which sucks because it took a while to do
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Old 04-29-2022, 11:04 AM   #97
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
Do you mean Ashland? Alabama A&M is D1. Either way it looks like there is some kind of adjustment going on since just adding/swapping those games isn't enough to make up the difference. I think it's just that blowout possessions are being excluded.
I guess an easy way to minimize meaningless possessions would be to use just the first half plus minus numbers from Gamebook. And maybe add 2nd half numbers for conference games that were competitive til the end.

I like the idea of using the conference numbers by Skyblade because that is after other teams figured out how to play us. The team we were in the beginning was not who we were after Illinois and ARK etc.
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Old 04-29-2022, 11:18 AM   #98
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Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
JD also missed a game as well as Newman. And Newman was on a pretty good streak right before injury and then didn't do a lot for a 6-7 game stretch. He did finish out pretty strong after that.

If you wanted to get real fancy with plus minus it would make sense to average the totals for games played. And even fancier would be to adjust for minutes played. Obviously DDJ, MAW, Newman and JD played the most minutes on the year. Ado played around 10 less minutes per game than these guys.

That is what I was doing. But I didn't adjust for the 4 guys above that were all getting around the same amount of minutes. But if Ado got 60% of what the others were getting I made an adjustment for that. So I had them all averaged by games played and then weighted for minutes.

I can't find my info that I worked on either which sucks because it took a while to do
Here you go, have fun. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing
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Old 04-30-2022, 02:28 AM   #99
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DDJ can get beat 10x straight down court. If we hit 10 3s his +/- would be +10. I don't know what you'll use that stat for.
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Old 04-30-2022, 10:55 AM   #100
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Originally Posted by TheRealMick View Post
DDJ can get beat 10x straight down court. If we hit 10 3s his +/- would be +10. I don't know what you'll use that stat for.
It's not a stat I would find useful in single games or even just a few games. But how the team is playing over the long term when certain players are on the floor is something I would want to know
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