2022-23 Open Thread

Queens_NYC · 03-01-2023, 05:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedziobs

I think these are the possible scenarios assuming Tulane wins at least one remaining game.

If Temple wins both games, they are the 4 seed and we are the 5. In the following scenarios we are the 4 seed:

Temple will be the 5 if they win one game and WSU loses a game, which is the most likely scenario and could be decided on Thursday. If only UCF and Temple end up 9-9, they will have split the head-to-head, and the tiebreaker would be the record against Houston. Temple has the advantage there.

If only Wichita St and Temple finish 9-9 (or 10-8), Wichita St has the tiebreaker over Temple since the Shockers won the only matchup between the two. Not very likely, since ECU needs to win at UCF or WSU needs to win at Houston.

If there's a 3-way tie at 9-9, UCF wins the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record against the tied teams. Decent chance of this happening, mostly depends on UCF beating Temple.

If there's a 3-way tie at 10-8 between us, Temple, and WSU, we are the 4 seed and Wichita St is the 5. Not likely since WSU has to win at Houston and we have to lose to SMU.

To sum up, we're probably playing Temple, though UCF could sneak in if they close out with 2 wins.

Great breakdown.

Although neither is the most likely option, UCF and Wichita St could both also be Houston's first opponent in the quarterfinals as well.

**sedziobs** · 03-01-2023, 10:21 PM

Tulane just got smoked at ECU. If they can't win the home matchup on Friday, we might have a shot at the 3 seed after all.

**sedziobs** · 03-02-2023, 02:16 PM

I think Temple needs to lose to UCF tonight for us to still have a shot at the 3 seed, since they have the tiebreaker over us and also in a three-way tie with Tulane. So we need all of these results:

Thursday UCF win at Temple (47%)
Friday ECU win at Tulane (16%)
Sunday UC win over SMU (88%)
Sunday Temple win at Tulane (34%)

2% chance of all those happening.

**sedziobs** · 03-02-2023, 08:25 PM

Alright, so no chance for the 3 seed anymore after Temple's win.

Now Temple's game at Tulane will determine who we face. I think the winner of that game will be the 3 seed regardless of what happens in our game or Tulane/ECU. We would face the loser.

**sedziobs** · 03-12-2023, 06:18 PM

NIT selection show at 10pm on ESPNU.

Looking at the NCAA bracket, my general rule of .500 in Q1/2 with one or two bad losses as the cut line was pretty good. 78 out of 83 had Rutgers in on Bracketmatrix, but Rutgers was 10-10 in Q1/2 with 4 bad losses. If you have more than 2 bad losses, you better be above .500 in quality games. Nevada replaced them with a 7-8 record in Q1/2 and 2 bad losses. I think they were the only team to make the field with multiple bad losses and a sub-.500 record in quality games. With 0 or 1 bad losses, a team can afford to be a few games under .500 in quality games. There are of course outliers like West Virginia who was 6-14 in Q1/2, but had no bad losses and played 19 Q1 games.

**sedziobs** · 03-12-2023, 06:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedziobs

Nevada replaced them with a 7-8 record in Q1/2 and 2 bad losses. I think they were the only team to make the field with multiple bad losses and a sub-.500 record in quality games.

Pitt was 7-9 in Q1/2 with 2 bad losses. In general avoiding bad losses gives a bit of cushion, but you can still get in with a weak bubble. Not very many bid stealers this year, allowing Pitt and Nevada to sneak in.

Lawrugby · 03-12-2023, 06:44 PM

Remember Logan Johnson? I was so bummed when he left. Led the West Coast Conference in steals, his team in minutes played and leads SMC to a five seed tourney birth. Some one to root for this year.

**sedziobs** · 03-12-2023, 07:11 PM

There are 11 auto bids to the NIT this year out of 32 total, so that leaves 21 spots. On Kenpom we're the 11th best team that didn't make the tournament. The top 16 teams are seeded and will host first round games. We have a good chance to grab one of those spots, and possibly a top 8 seed to potentially host a second round game.

The last time we were in the NIT was 2010 when we beat Damian Lillard and Weber St in the opening round before losing to eventual champions Dayton in round 2.

**sedziobs** · 03-12-2023, 09:14 PM

We face Virginia Tech on Wednesday as the 4 seed in a bracket with Rutgers.

Queens_NYC · 03-12-2023, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedziobs

We face Virginia Tech on Wednesday as the 4 seed in a bracket with Rutgers.

Good draw. They're a battle-tested but beatable team.

Rutgers would be even tougher should we both win. #5 team in KenPom's AdjD.

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03-01-2023, 10:21 PM	#32
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,212	Tulane just got smoked at ECU. If they can't win the home matchup on Friday, we might have a shot at the 3 seed after all.

03-02-2023, 02:16 PM	#33
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,212	I think Temple needs to lose to UCF tonight for us to still have a shot at the 3 seed, since they have the tiebreaker over us and also in a three-way tie with Tulane. So we need all of these results: Thursday UCF win at Temple (47%) Friday ECU win at Tulane (16%) Sunday UC win over SMU (88%) Sunday Temple win at Tulane (34%) 2% chance of all those happening.

03-02-2023, 08:25 PM	#34
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,212	Alright, so no chance for the 3 seed anymore after Temple's win. Now Temple's game at Tulane will determine who we face. I think the winner of that game will be the 3 seed regardless of what happens in our game or Tulane/ECU. We would face the loser.

03-12-2023, 06:18 PM	#35
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,212	NIT selection show at 10pm on ESPNU. Looking at the NCAA bracket, my general rule of .500 in Q1/2 with one or two bad losses as the cut line was pretty good. 78 out of 83 had Rutgers in on Bracketmatrix, but Rutgers was 10-10 in Q1/2 with 4 bad losses. If you have more than 2 bad losses, you better be above .500 in quality games. Nevada replaced them with a 7-8 record in Q1/2 and 2 bad losses. I think they were the only team to make the field with multiple bad losses and a sub-.500 record in quality games. With 0 or 1 bad losses, a team can afford to be a few games under .500 in quality games. There are of course outliers like West Virginia who was 6-14 in Q1/2, but had no bad losses and played 19 Q1 games.

03-12-2023, 06:44 PM	#37
Lawrugby Senior Member Join Date: Sep 2017 Posts: 438	Remember Logan Johnson? I was so bummed when he left. Led the West Coast Conference in steals, his team in minutes played and leads SMC to a five seed tourney birth. Some one to root for this year.

03-12-2023, 07:11 PM	#38
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,212	There are 11 auto bids to the NIT this year out of 32 total, so that leaves 21 spots. On Kenpom we're the 11th best team that didn't make the tournament. The top 16 teams are seeded and will host first round games. We have a good chance to grab one of those spots, and possibly a top 8 seed to potentially host a second round game. The last time we were in the NIT was 2010 when we beat Damian Lillard and Weber St in the opening round before losing to eventual champions Dayton in round 2.

03-12-2023, 09:14 PM	#39
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,212	We face Virginia Tech on Wednesday as the 4 seed in a bracket with Rutgers.