ECU Part II

[Queens_NYC]

Wednesday, February 15th, 2023
7:00 PM
Williams Arena
ESPN+

The Bearcats (16-9 [8-5 AAC], NET #75, KenPom #62) continue their AAC farewell tour as they travel to Greenville one last time to take on East Carolina (12-12 [3-8 AAC], NET #219, KenPom #213). The Pirates’ most recent game at Tulane was canceled over the weekend due to the sudden passing of long-time radio announcer Jeff Charles. There is no plan in place yet for this game to be replayed.

Since our 83-55 home win over ECU on January 11th, the Pirates are 2-4 with their only wins coming at home against Tulsa (76-66) and SMU (77-72). 6’3 sophomore guard RJ Felton, who only had 6 points on 2-8 shooting in our first match-up, has emerged as the team’s top scoring option over the past 4 games averaging 20.3 ppg.

ECU is the worst shooting team in the league through the first two-thirds of conference play (38.4% FG) and also has the league’s worst 3-point defense where they’ve allowed AAC opponents to hit 36.4% of their shots from deep. On the plus side, they lead the league in offensive rebounding at 11.3/game.

The Bearcats are 9.5-point favorites on the road.

[sedziobs]

In the home matchup we made 14 of 26 threes, an insane 54%. Probably can't count on that again. We only got to the rim 14 times and settled for 25 midrange jumpers. It would be nice to have better shot selection against a poor defense. ECU has given up more than a point per possession in their last 7 games. While their offensive rebounding has been good this year (#31 nationally), we held ECU to their lowest OReb rate of the season. Hopefully we can dominate the boards again.

[sedziobs]

The difference between Kenpom and Torvik is really large for this late in the season. We're all the way up to #35 on Torvik but still down at #62 on Kenpom. I suspect this has to do with how blowouts are handled. Our biggest jump on Torvik was from 66 to 51 after winning by 16 at USF. Prior to that we improved 9 spots after beating ECU by 28. Our biggest drop was from 66 to 88 after losing to OSU by 28. I'm guessing Kenpom discounts high margins more, similar to NET.

[Queens_NYC]

Davenport with one of the best halves of his career.

-11 on the boards though which is completely unacceptable.

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

In the home matchup we made 14 of 26 threes, an insane 54%. Probably can't count on that again. We only got to the rim 14 times and settled for 25 midrange jumpers. It would be nice to have better shot selection against a poor defense. ECU has given up more than a point per possession in their last 7 games. While their offensive rebounding has been good this year (#31 nationally), we held ECU to their lowest OReb rate of the season. Hopefully we can dominate the boards again.

The offense was fine last night, and we actually did have much better shot selection. We got to the rim 25 times and only had 13 midrange shots. We scored 1.06 points per possession, which should be enough to beat ECU on any court.

But wow, what a turnaround on the boards. ECU went from having their worst offensive rebounding performance of the season at Fifth Third to their best of the season last night. In the first matchup we outrebounded them by 17, last night ECU beat us by 19 on the glass. They got to the rim 32 times. Just a terrible showing that can't be attributed to bad luck. It's not like ECU was draining tough shots all night. We were outworked and outcoached.

[TheRealMick]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

The offense was fine last night, and we actually did have much better shot selection. We got to the rim 25 times and only had 13 midrange shots. We scored 1.06 points per possession, which should be enough to beat ECU on any court.

But wow, what a turnaround on the boards. ECU went from having their worst offensive rebounding performance of the season at Fifth Third to their best of the season last night. In the first matchup we outrebounded them by 17, last night ECU beat us by 19 on the glass. They got to the rim 32 times. Just a terrible showing that can't be attributed to bad luck. It's not like ECU was draining tough shots all night. We were outworked and outcoached.

Offense was horrible last night. Jd got hot but most them shots i considered bad shots he just made. DDJ was throwing dumb high passes and im surprised he didn't have 10 TO. Offense and defense was horrible. Give me your eye test opinion. Can we stop posting useless lame data?

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by TheRealMick

Offense was horrible last night. Jd got hot but most them shots i considered bad shots he just made. DDJ was throwing dumb high passes and im surprised he didn't have 10 TO. Offense and defense was horrible. Give me your eye test opinion. Can we stop posting useless lame data?

I give my eye test opinion during or immediately following the game before looking at any stats. I've done that all year long. Stats can tell you a lot of things that your eyes miss, and your eyes can tell you things that stats don't measure.

I've said before that we should run more horns sets with Nolley at the top, guards in the corners, bigs at the elbows. That vacates the block and allows anyone to cut there with or without the ball. It lets the guards come off down screens and the bigs to roll to the rim. It's a pretty standard setup that a lot of teams use these days, and it would play to our players' strengths. That comes from watching games, not stats.

But the stats say our offense was fine last night. We were 33% from three because while JD was hot, the rest of the team was 2 for 13. We only had 8 turnovers despite Nolley coughing it up 5 times. You can say all the jumpshots were bad but we were 16 for 25 at the rim. Our eyes focus on the outliers and the stats fill in the rest. Putting up points is what matters and we did that. It was an average offensive game and a horrible defensive game.

[TheRealMick]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

I give my eye test opinion during or immediately following the game before looking at any stats. I've done that all year long. Stats can tell you a lot of things that your eyes miss, and your eyes can tell you things that stats don't measure.

I've said before that we should run more horns sets with Nolley at the top, guards in the corners, bigs at the elbows. That vacates the block and allows anyone to cut there with or without the ball. It lets the guards come off down screens and the bigs to roll to the rim. It's a pretty standard setup that a lot of teams use these days, and it would play to our players' strengths. That comes from watching games, not stats.

But the stats say our offense was fine last night. We were 33% from three because while JD was hot, the rest of the team was 2 for 13. We only had 8 turnovers despite Nolley coughing it up 5 times. You can say all the jumpshots were bad but we were 16 for 25 at the rim. Our eyes focus on the outliers and the stats fill in the rest. Putting up points is what matters and we did that. It was an average offensive game and a horrible defensive game.

That's where the eye test go into effect but coaches like you relying too much on stats. After being up 16, when lead got down to I believe 11 coach should've took out 3 of the starters. Idc who he put in game, just eat the clock and pack the paint. This is a 40min sport not 30min. The Offense was behind horrible in last 10min.

[sirthought]

Roy Williams would not have done much better with the talent on this team.

I actually think they have the skill set, but not the IQ. And coaching does factor into that, but he's not out there making the plays for them.

I'm seeing a lot of missed opportunity on his part. But I'm just chalking this season up as a bad one overall and hoping next year's talent rises to the occasion.

[sedziobs]

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