2022-23 Open Thread

sirthought · 07-15-2022, 08:58 PM

Thanks for those nuggets

**sedziobs** · 11-13-2022, 04:16 PM

Some up and down performances in our conference so far. Temple lost to Wagner at home but then beat Villanova. UCF lost to UNC Asheville and then beat Florida St. USF lost to SE Missouri St and then had a 9 pt halftime lead at Auburn before losing.

Wichita St lost to Alcorn St. Houston and Memphis look to be good as usual.

**waterhead** · 11-13-2022, 07:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedziobs

Some up and down performances in our conference so far. Temple lost to Wagner at home but then beat Villanova. UCF lost to UNC Asheville and then beat Florida St. USF lost to SE Missouri St and then had a 9 pt halftime lead at Auburn before losing.

Wichita St lost to Alcorn St. Houston and Memphis look to be good as usual.

Just win the games and keep improving. We could also be UL right now.

**sedziobs** · 11-14-2022, 05:33 PM

Conference performance matters when it comes to quality wins, regardless of how good our team actually is.

**sedziobs** · 12-23-2022, 07:07 PM

solvingbasketball.libsyn.com

Good podcast with Ken Pomeroy. A little discussion near the beginning about Wes taking the timeout technical foul at the end of the X game.

Near the end Ken talks about why plus minus isn't a useful stat. Basically there are too many variables involved, or if you eliminate variables by only using 5 man lineups, there isn't a big enough sample size to compare with other lineups.

Another interesting discussion was how preseason ratings still have predictive value even at the end of the season. Compared to baseball, college basketball has a relatively short 30 game season. The sample is small enough that noise in the season data is significant and many teams will not have reverted to their long term average performance after 30 games. Nate Silver has been using preseason rankings in his NCAA tournament projections because it works better than leaving them out.

**sedziobs** · 02-02-2023, 01:54 PM

Juco guard DaVeon Thomas committed today. 6'0" PG from Kilgore College in Texas. Averaging 20 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists. 36% from three on 4 attempts per game. Gets to the line 5 times a game and converts 86%.

So now we have our replacements for DDJ and Phinisee with DaVeon and Jizzle coming in. Rayvon will take Ezikpe's scholarship.

**waterhead** · 02-03-2023, 06:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedziobs

Juco guard DaVeon Thomas committed today. 6'0" PG from Kilgore College in Texas. Averaging 20 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists. 36% from three on 4 attempts per game. Gets to the line 5 times a game and converts 86%.

So now we have our replacements for DDJ and Phinisee with DaVeon and Jizzle coming in. Rayvon will take Ezikpe's scholarship.

Just need a quality big now and see who sticks around and who is leaving. Thomas and Jizzle seem very much like each other in terms of skill sets. Hopefully they can focus a bit more on assists than they might be used to. If MAW sticks around we should be secure at the 1...and because MAW and Thomas are combos we should have enough options at the 2 as well...considering we have Skillings and Rayvon and Newman etc.

Queens_NYC · 02-03-2023, 09:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedziobs

Juco guard DaVeon Thomas committed today. 6'0" PG from Kilgore College in Texas. Averaging 20 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists. 36% from three on 4 attempts per game. Gets to the line 5 times a game and converts 86%.

So now we have our replacements for DDJ and Phinisee with DaVeon and Jizzle coming in. Rayvon will take Ezikpe's scholarship.

Quote:

Originally Posted by waterhead

Just need a quality big now and see who sticks around and who is leaving. Thomas and Jizzle seem very much like each other in terms of skill sets. Hopefully they can focus a bit more on assists than they might be used to. If MAW sticks around we should be secure at the 1...and because MAW and Thomas are combos we should have enough options at the 2 as well...considering we have Skillings and Rayvon and Newman etc.

Seems like a great pick-up on all accounts and someone who possesses a lot of the attributes of what we're looking for in a Big 12 guard.

I doubt we win this type of recruiting battle if we were not playing in the Big 12 next season.

All eyes now turn to Bidunga and his recruitment for the next couple months.

Queens_NYC · 02-28-2023, 05:50 AM

Barring an all-out collapse by Tulane this week, there's a 95% chance we are locked into the 4/5 game in next week's AAC quarterfinals.

That game would be played Friday, March 10th at 3 pm on ESPN2.

Here are some games this week that will impact who we play in that match-up.

Thursday, 3/2
Wichita St (8-8) @ Houston
UCF (7-9) @ Temple (9-7)

Sunday, 3/5
USF @ Wichita St (8-8)
Temple (9-7) @ Tulane
ECU @ UCF (7-9)

**sedziobs** · 02-28-2023, 04:37 PM

I think these are the possible scenarios assuming Tulane wins at least one remaining game.

If Temple wins both games, they are the 4 seed and we are the 5. In the following scenarios we are the 4 seed:

Temple will be the 5 if they win one game and WSU loses a game, which is the most likely scenario and could be decided on Thursday. If only UCF and Temple end up 9-9, they will have split the head-to-head, and the tiebreaker would be the record against Houston. Temple has the advantage there.

If only Wichita St and Temple finish 9-9 (or 10-8), Wichita St has the tiebreaker over Temple since the Shockers won the only matchup between the two. Not very likely, since ECU needs to win at UCF or WSU needs to win at Houston.

If there's a 3-way tie at 9-9, UCF wins the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record against the tied teams. Decent chance of this happening, mostly depends on UCF beating Temple.

If there's a 3-way tie at 10-8 between us, Temple, and WSU, we are the 4 seed and Wichita St is the 5. Not likely since WSU has to win at Houston and we have to lose to SMU.

To sum up, we're probably playing Temple, though UCF could sneak in if they close out with 2 wins.

11-13-2022, 04:16 PM	#22
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,252	2022-23 Open Thread Some up and down performances in our conference so far. Temple lost to Wagner at home but then beat Villanova. UCF lost to UNC Asheville and then beat Florida St. USF lost to SE Missouri St and then had a 9 pt halftime lead at Auburn before losing. Wichita St lost to Alcorn St. Houston and Memphis look to be good as usual.

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07-15-2022, 08:58 PM	#21
sirthought Senior Member Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Down by river Posts: 270	Thanks for those nuggets

11-14-2022, 05:33 PM	#24
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,252	Conference performance matters when it comes to quality wins, regardless of how good our team actually is.

12-23-2022, 07:07 PM	#25
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,252	solvingbasketball.libsyn.com Good podcast with Ken Pomeroy. A little discussion near the beginning about Wes taking the timeout technical foul at the end of the X game. Near the end Ken talks about why plus minus isn't a useful stat. Basically there are too many variables involved, or if you eliminate variables by only using 5 man lineups, there isn't a big enough sample size to compare with other lineups. Another interesting discussion was how preseason ratings still have predictive value even at the end of the season. Compared to baseball, college basketball has a relatively short 30 game season. The sample is small enough that noise in the season data is significant and many teams will not have reverted to their long term average performance after 30 games. Nate Silver has been using preseason rankings in his NCAA tournament projections because it works better than leaving them out.

02-02-2023, 01:54 PM	#26
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,252	Juco guard DaVeon Thomas committed today. 6'0" PG from Kilgore College in Texas. Averaging 20 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists. 36% from three on 4 attempts per game. Gets to the line 5 times a game and converts 86%. So now we have our replacements for DDJ and Phinisee with DaVeon and Jizzle coming in. Rayvon will take Ezikpe's scholarship.

02-28-2023, 05:50 AM	#29
Queens_NYC Epic Member Join Date: Jan 2017 Posts: 1,540	Barring an all-out collapse by Tulane this week, there's a 95% chance we are locked into the 4/5 game in next week's AAC quarterfinals. That game would be played Friday, March 10th at 3 pm on ESPN2. Here are some games this week that will impact who we play in that match-up. Thursday, 3/2 Wichita St (8-8) @ Houston UCF (7-9) @ Temple (9-7) Sunday, 3/5 USF @ Wichita St (8-8) Temple (9-7) @ Tulane ECU @ UCF (7-9)

02-28-2023, 04:37 PM	#30
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,252	I think these are the possible scenarios assuming Tulane wins at least one remaining game. If Temple wins both games, they are the 4 seed and we are the 5. In the following scenarios we are the 4 seed: Temple will be the 5 if they win one game and WSU loses a game, which is the most likely scenario and could be decided on Thursday. If only UCF and Temple end up 9-9, they will have split the head-to-head, and the tiebreaker would be the record against Houston. Temple has the advantage there. If only Wichita St and Temple finish 9-9 (or 10-8), Wichita St has the tiebreaker over Temple since the Shockers won the only matchup between the two. Not very likely, since ECU needs to win at UCF or WSU needs to win at Houston. If there's a 3-way tie at 9-9, UCF wins the tiebreaker with a 3-1 record against the tied teams. Decent chance of this happening, mostly depends on UCF beating Temple. If there's a 3-way tie at 10-8 between us, Temple, and WSU, we are the 4 seed and Wichita St is the 5. Not likely since WSU has to win at Houston and we have to lose to SMU. To sum up, we're probably playing Temple, though UCF could sneak in if they close out with 2 wins.