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Old 02-16-2020, 03:39 PM   #51
sedziobs
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I expect we'll still be the 3rd to last team in after the weekend. I think Georgetown will replace Stanford as the last team in. Arkansas and Virginia will swap places with us sandwiched in between.
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Old 02-16-2020, 04:00 PM   #52
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You’re probably right.

But they have 4 tier 1 wins right now. They win out, they not only have a better resume but could knock us off the bubble if we slipped up.


With 3 tier 1 games remaining and 2 tier 2

For what’s its worth kenpom predicts 5 straights losses
Not saying I expect UCLA to win out, but their kenpom ranking is deceiving. They were terrible early in the year (and thus the low kenpom rank), but have figured out how to play defense how Cronin wants it and are only getting better.

They are 7-2 over their last 9, including wins at a ranked Arizona, where they held Arizona to their lowest point total of the season and vs ranked Colorado. Them winning out is unlikely, but going 4-1 is possible. Then they have to hope the committee is willing to forgive their early season losses as a product of having a new coach and look at their record over their last 14 games (would be 11-3 with multiple Q1 victories if they finish 4-1).
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Old 02-16-2020, 04:16 PM   #53
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Not saying I expect UCLA to win out, but their kenpom ranking is deceiving. They were terrible early in the year (and thus the low kenpom rank), but have figured out how to play defense how Cronin wants it and are only getting better.

They are 7-2 over their last 9, including wins at a ranked Arizona, where they held Arizona to their lowest point total of the season and vs ranked Colorado. Them winning out is unlikely, but going 4-1 is possible. Then they have to hope the committee is willing to forgive their early season losses as a product of having a new coach and look at their record over their last 14 games (would be 11-3 with multiple Q1 victories if they finish 4-1).
Maybe the committee would overlook our early failures too
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Old 02-16-2020, 04:30 PM   #54
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Maybe the committee would overlook our early failures too
There's definitely an argument to be made that they should, especially given that Jarron was injured. The difference is, as long as we only drop one more we should be in the tournament regardless. UCLA needs to lose at most one game and hope the committee focuses on their last 14ish games.
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Old 02-16-2020, 04:42 PM   #55
justinhub2003
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I think our bad losses and UCLA’s are pretty on par. We have 3 tier 3 losses they have 1 tier 3 loss and one tier 4

But they lack Q2 wins.

But if UC and UCLA both managed to win out. I’d probably take UCLA’s resume just because it would have 7 tier 1 wins
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Old 02-16-2020, 04:57 PM   #56
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I think our bad losses and UCLA’s are pretty on par. We have 3 tier 3 losses they have 1 tier 3 loss and one tier 4

But they lack Q2 wins.

But if UC and UCLA both managed to win out. I’d probably take UCLA’s resume just because it would have 7 tier 1 wins
We really think UCLA could win out? I could easily see them losing 3 of their final 5. They have a hard schedule. I get the are playing better but they still aren’t that good. They have 3 road games. Those alone are going to be hard to win.
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Old 02-16-2020, 05:06 PM   #57
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If we go 4-1, losing to Houston, I think we get in easy. We obviously have to play much better. Wichita is going to give us everything they have and @usf is no joke. Houston will most likely lose 1-2 more.
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Old 02-16-2020, 05:13 PM   #58
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If we go 4-1, losing to Houston, I think we get in easy. We obviously have to play much better. Wichita is going to give us everything they have and @usf is no joke. Houston will most likely lose 1-2 more.
agree with all this. @usf is a sleeper. back to back road games, top 125 opponent.


the team looks like it needs the week off we get after this week. legs seem tired and jarron needs to get back to healthy.
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Old 02-16-2020, 05:24 PM   #59
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agree with all this. @usf is a sleeper. back to back road games, top 125 opponent.


the team looks like it needs the week off we get after this week. legs seem tired and jarron needs to get back to healthy.
We have a week at home. That should help recharge the batteries to some extent.
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Old 02-16-2020, 05:33 PM   #60
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Very small but possible chance that UC could play UCLA in a play in game If UCLA wins out their remaining games.

The committee loves setting stuff like this up. If UCLA wins out or wins the conference tourney, I wouldn’t put it past them to do such a thing.
Is there any UC fan who wouldn't take a first weekend(ish) game against a Mick Cronin team?
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