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Old 03-12-2023, 04:06 AM   #1
sirthought
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2023-24 roster

This years' team just didn't have the horses to compete with the big boys.

I think of some of the players who left now doing okay on other rosters, and I think if we had had some continuity, their development might have helped. But not so much to compete at Houston's level this season. And certainly not in the Big 12.

We need major upgrades. Recruiting and coaching. I'm not ready to fire Miller yet. Maybe if he has a more balanced roster he can get things cooking. But there was a lot of head scratching at his in-game decisions.

I see a team like Xavier that was always falling apart in the home stretch and how Sean Miller has whipped a team into shape that a lot of folks didn't think was very good.
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Old 03-12-2023, 09:28 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sirthought View Post
This years' team just didn't have the horses to compete with the big boys.

I think of some of the players who left now doing okay on other rosters, and I think if we had had some continuity, their development might have helped. But not so much to compete at Houston's level this season. And certainly not in the Big 12.

We need major upgrades. Recruiting and coaching. I'm not ready to fire Miller yet. Maybe if he has a more balanced roster he can get things cooking. But there was a lot of head scratching at his in-game decisions.

I see a team like Xavier that was always falling apart in the home stretch and how Sean Miller has whipped a team into shape that a lot of folks didn't think was very good.
That's probably one of the best ways to simply summarize this season.

18-2 in Q3/Q4/D2 games.

3-10 in Q1/Q2 games.

Guys like MAW and Davenport have been formidable AAC players for the better part of their careers.

There's also been moments when they've looked blatantly overmatched against better talent/athletes.

Wes will have to make some tough decisions over the offseason.

Do we keep such guys around for one more year for culture/leadership purposes or do we recruit over them in the portal in an effort to make us more physically competitive next season?
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Old 03-12-2023, 09:55 AM   #3
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2023-24 roster

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Originally Posted by Queens_NYC View Post
Guys like MAW and Davenport have been formidable AAC players for the better part of their careers.

There's also been moments when they've looked blatantly overmatched against better talent/athletes.

Wes will have to make some tough decisions over the offseason.

Do we keep such guys around for one more year for culture/leadership purposes or do we recruit over them in the portal in an effort to make us more physically competitive next season?
There is no magical one year cure of recruiting over guys. MAW is a solid player, who Wes knows and can trust. There's a very good chance Wes has him penciled in as a starter next year.

Recruiting over players isn't as easy as it sounds. Transfers aren't a sure thing, there are plenty of busts even among higher rated guys. Changing teams isn't easy and it also makes it harder for new guys to develop over the off-season.

If you "recruit over" MAW, I'd say odds are approximately 1/3rd that you get a better player, 1/3rd that you get a comparable guy and 1/3rd that you get a significant downgrade. That gamble is not worth it for a team that is already lacking in guard depth.

There will plenty of minutes to go around. Get the best transfers you can at either guard or forward/center. But keep MAW and Ody around, if (and it's a big if for MAW especially) they do get beat out as starters, they still provide huge value off the bench.

Davenport I could do without, he's already physically outmatched in the American. But if he wants to stick around as a 5-10 minute per game bench guy because he loves UC, more power to him.
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Old 03-12-2023, 09:59 AM   #4
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Watched the post game presser and I feel much better. Very proud to have a coach like Miller. He was all in with the hand he was dealt and treated DeJulius with the utmost integrity which is what that kid deserved. We may not have gone as far as we would have liked, albeit with some improvement, but the program remains intact and on good footing. Some success in the NIT would be a very nice bow on the package of this season and I am hopeful for that. Also hope Sasser is better and the best for Houston in the tournament.
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Old 03-12-2023, 05:00 PM   #5
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I'd say there are three B12 caliber players on this roster: Nolley, Lakhin, and Skillings (maybe Newman too if he comes back). Hopefully with James and Griffith coming in we'll have a full lineup, but it will still be a very young group and I don't expect all of them to start next year.

I like DDJ, but it's really hard to have a good offense when one of your highest usage players isn't efficient. And he really struggles against good competition. On the season his effective field goal percentage is a below average 49%, but against top 100 competition this season it was only 41%. He plays hard and is crafty, but he's always at a size and athleticism disadvantage.

The biggest question mark is probably power forward. Going into his 5th season, Ody still has no offensive skills outside of 10 feet and is not a rim protector. Davenport is overmatched inside. Our best option might be to play Nolley at the 4 and just accept that our wings will have to compensate for his rebounding and defense. That would free up the wings for Skillings/Griffith/Davenport/Newman. If Nolley plays the 3 there will be a big logjam at the 1-3 positions if everyone stays.
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Old 03-12-2023, 05:27 PM   #6
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I'd say there are three B12 caliber players on this roster: Nolley, Lakhin, and Skillings (maybe Newman too if he comes back). Hopefully with James and Griffith coming in we'll have a full lineup, but it will still be a very young group and I don't expect all of them to start next year.

I like DDJ, but it's really hard to have a good offense when one of your highest usage players isn't efficient. And he really struggles against good competition. On the season his effective field goal percentage is a below average 49%, but against top 100 competition this season it was only 41%. He plays hard and is crafty, but he's always at a size and athleticism disadvantage.

The biggest question mark is probably power forward. Going into his 5th season, Ody still has no offensive skills outside of 10 feet and is not a rim protector. Davenport is overmatched inside. Our best option might be to play Nolley at the 4 and just accept that our wings will have to compensate for his rebounding and defense. That would free up the wings for Skillings/Griffith/Davenport/Newman. If Nolley plays the 3 there will be a big logjam at the 1-3 positions if everyone stays.
I don't really expect Nolley to come back. Without NIL there's basically no way he'd be back, with NIL there's a chance. There's not much more he can do to improve his pro prospects by staying another year.

https://mobile.twitter.com/jeffborze...93666298822660
"Only about seven top-100 freshmen ranked outside the top 25 are making a noticeable impact each year. Essentially, if you’re not landing a five-star, the better bet for an immediate impact is almost always a transfer."

I'm not expecting a lot out of Jizzle or Griffith in year one, it could happen, but the odds are not in their favor.

I think we are better off without DDJ. He did great things here, but his lack of size and being primarily an iso jump shooter hurt us in many ways.

MAW is B12 caliper, he wouldn't be the top choice of PG, but he's easily good enough (and could still develop more in his final year). There are plenty of PG's with less athleticism who play on very good teams (Tyger Campbell comes to mind).

I expect next years starters to be initially penciled in as: MAW, Skillings, Newman, Ody and Lakhin. Wes will do his best to get transfers who upgrade our weakest positions (Center/PF and guard).

I expect we'll have 2/3 spots open, most likely to leave are Davenport (transfer), Hensley (transfer) and Nolley (plays professionally, either in the G-league or overseas).
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Old 03-12-2023, 05:33 PM   #7
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There is no magic cure for recruiting in one off season. Only a ton of luck.

I think if Wes finds an upgrade opportunity he has to take it. A transfer isn't going to necessarily gel right away, but he might as well be going for developing the type of athlete he thinks best fits the profile to make the concepts work.

I'm done with Davenport. He had his moments, but overall he's total drain on the program and represents our shortcomings in the time he's been here. Not entirely his fault, as a more complete team helps everyone perform. But how long can you keep allowing bad shot after bad shot, even if some sometimes fall? His defense can't stand up to the schedule we face.

Vik may transfer somewhere he doesn't have to take such a load. I'll be pleased if he stays.

MAW has always been fine with me. His issues are based on ability, but not on effort or mental mistakes. He knows Wes' system at this point and that can be valuable. But I wouldn't be surprised if he moves on.

Nolley should be interesting. He's good enough to play professionally. But so are plenty of others across D1, and I wonder how long he'd last on a roster. I bet he wonders too. He might decide to stay to get as much education as he can while it's free.

I like the two freshmen. The rest I'm not seeing a lot of upside. Right now.
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Old 03-12-2023, 06:08 PM   #8
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I have no idea who is going to stay. I've talked before about how low-level pro ball is not a whole lot better than a free year in college. The money isn't enough to build wealth and the conditions aren't great. Nolley might choose that path but it's not a given.

Obviously players can be good if they aren't big or athletic, but they need to be very skilled. Tyger Campbell is very skilled. MAW is good in some areas, but he's very limited overall so he's basically a role player. He's just an ok shooter and has no rebounding ability, so he should be a PG. I'm fine with him starting at PG ahead of a talented freshman and athletic Juco. It's a problem when he's playing 30 minutes on the wing.
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Old 03-12-2023, 06:12 PM   #9
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I agree on Davenport, but he loves the Bearcats and if he stays in a mostly cheerleader role, I'm fine with it.

I think there's an argument to be made that Nolley should move on as well. Nolley played great at times, but Davenport and Nolley are not the guys I want building a culture. Nolley took more plays off this year than anyone else on the team, plays with a lackadaisical attitude at times and leads the team in careless mistakes.

Wes started from almost nothing and has to balance the good enough for now, with improving for the future. I don't want to clear out the team, gamble it all on transfers and end up screwed for the long-term future. A guy he wants back next year to start (MAW, Ody), might be a guy who would barely get on the floor on our team in 3 years if everything goes to plan.

Nolley checks the great player box, MAW and Ody check the lead by example culture building box, Davenport checks the cheerleading culture building box. If Hensley couldn't break through this year, it's hard to believe he ever will. Probably gone, though if Wes keeps him around one more year, I'm willing to trust Wes.
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Old 03-12-2023, 06:17 PM   #10
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I have no idea who is going to stay. I've talked before about how low-level pro ball is not a whole lot better than a free year in college. The money isn't enough to build wealth and the conditions aren't great. Nolley might choose that path but it's not a given.

Obviously players can be good if they aren't big or athletic, but they need to be very skilled. Tyger Campbell is very skilled. MAW is good in some areas, but he's very limited overall so he's basically a role player. He's just an ok shooter and has no rebounding ability, so he should be a PG. I'm fine with him starting at PG ahead of a talented freshman and athletic Juco. It's a problem when he's playing 30 minutes on the wing.
I agree with MAW at PG and hopefully closer to 25 minutes next year. But we don't have a ton of depth, so I definitely don't want him gone. Odds are against Jizzle being a major contributor, Thomas may take a bit to find his footing coming in as a JUCO guys (hopefully he does quickly) and Skillings is our only other guard. We can probably add another guard and still have plenty of minutes to go around.
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