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Old 11-12-2018, 08:33 AM   #1
Cin City
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Prediction...

I always find myself playing around on Warren Nolans site...worth looking at if you haven't been. Anyway, for al the doom and gloom we've played out in our heads, he seems to think pretty highly of us with his game by game predictions. Have a look.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/20...eam=Cincinnati
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Old 11-12-2018, 09:59 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cin City View Post
I always find myself playing around on Warren Nolans site...worth looking at if you haven't been. Anyway, for al the doom and gloom we've played out in our heads, he seems to think pretty highly of us with his game by game predictions. Have a look.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/20...eam=Cincinnati
I'm not going to jump off the ledge after one game. We missed a lot of shots that we will make a higher % of in the future. That being said...

We saw 38 of 40 minutes being played by Brooks/Nsoseme at the 5 and 27 minutes out of Jenifer. That is a combined 65 minutes of 80 possible. I think that number should be closer to 50 total. About 15 each from the bigs and 20 or so from Jenifer (assuming Johnson will never earn 25 to 30 minutes as a frosh). But we have to give Johnson a REAL shot and I would rather play small for a while than run with 2 bigs on the court. I am okay with Scott getting around 30 minutes because he can do that from both the 4 and 5 spot. He gives us at least a "decent" chance at stretching the court and he can run the high ball screen and pick and roll because he can hit a face up J or make a good pass or put the ball on the floor once and head to the rack. Neither of the other bigs can do any of that stuff and Scott is somewhat limited as well.

This team needs a 3rd scorer on the court or someone who can at least create easy looks for others. If we start to see more of Johnson and small ball I will be a little more hopeful of our season. Even with small ball I am reluctant until we see one of the wings start to prove their worth. If we don't see that happen then we might be better off with protecting the rim and grabbing rebounds...but our potential will be limited.
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Old 11-12-2018, 11:37 AM   #3
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I really think Keith Williams will surprise us by years end. He has the tools to be that 3rd guy. We've seen flashes. Just gotta keep it consistent and use that slashing ability.
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Old 11-12-2018, 01:18 PM   #4
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I really think Keith Williams will surprise us by years end. He has the tools to be that 3rd guy. We've seen flashes. Just gotta keep it consistent and use that slashing ability.
Hope you are right...or that those who say Moore is a great shooter are right...but I'm in wait and see mode with these kids. At least Williams can finish at the rim, something Brooks can't do.

I hope we get to see a Johnson, Broome, Cumberland, Scott, Nsoseme lineup for a decent stretch. And then a Johnson, Broome, Williams/Moore, Cumberland, Scoot lineup for a stretch
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Old 11-12-2018, 02:25 PM   #5
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Hope you are right...or that those who say Moore is a great shooter are right...but I'm in wait and see mode with these kids. At least Williams can finish at the rim, something Brooks can't do.

I hope we get to see a Johnson, Broome, Cumberland, Scott, Nsoseme lineup for a decent stretch. And then a Johnson, Broome, Williams/Moore, Cumberland, Scoot lineup for a stretch
I think the stretch of UNLV, NKU, X, and Miss. State will really give us a feel for the season and conference schedule. I feel that teams like those mimic our conference opponents quite well. SOOOOO, hopefully we can catch some positive glimpses and grab a few W's.
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Old 11-13-2018, 07:44 AM   #6
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I really think Keith Williams will surprise us by years end. He has the tools to be that 3rd guy. We've seen flashes. Just gotta keep it consistent and use that slashing ability.
He needs to place in transition... as does this entire team.

Simply just not enough shooting to play in the half court.... Ever.
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Old 12-10-2018, 07:30 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cin City View Post
I always find myself playing around on Warren Nolans site...worth looking at if you haven't been. Anyway, for al the doom and gloom we've played out in our heads, he seems to think pretty highly of us with his game by game predictions. Have a look.

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/20...eam=Cincinnati
hmmmmmm.......
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Old 12-10-2018, 08:08 PM   #8
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hmmmmmm.......
Overachieving would be an understatement
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Old 12-11-2018, 05:47 AM   #9
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While that certainly is enticing and something that would completely blow us away as a fan base...I still think we end up in that 8-11 loss range. Road games in conference will be tough. @UConn @Houston @UCF @Memphis...even @WSU. Tough. Not saying we can't get wins, but it will certainly be a challenge. I like where are right now and the next two will certainly tell us more about this team than the last 3. Let's enjoy it fella's and ladies.
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Old 12-11-2018, 08:59 AM   #10
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I'll quote myself from last year:

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Warren Nolan's predictions are deterministic, meaning the most likely result of each individual game is used. The deterministic approach has UC going 28-3 with the only loss at Wichita. Kenpom uses probabilistic predictions, which give us a 26-5 record.

Just to clarify further for non-nerds: say we play 10 games with a 60% chance of winning each. Our deterministic predicted record is 10-0. The probabilistic prediction is 6-4. Determinism gives poor forecasts, so it is likely that the RPIs in Warren Nolan's predicted team sheet will look quite different.
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