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Old 12-11-2018, 09:09 AM   #11
waterhead
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Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
I'll quote myself from last year:
To add to that I think Torvik has us at 24-7 probabilistic and 27-4 deterministic. It is still interesting that Nolan has us winning the next game (by 1) but we are 4 point dogs on Torvik site. Not sure how they can be that far off each other.
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Old 12-11-2018, 09:23 AM   #12
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To add to that I think Torvik has us at 24-7 probabilistic and 27-4 deterministic. It is still interesting that Nolan has us winning the next game (by 1) but we are 4 point dogs on Torvik site. Not sure how they can be that far off each other.
Probably because Warren Nolan doesn't have a very good model.

His stuff doesn't come near as close to mirroring Vegas lines as torvik and kpom.
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Old 12-11-2018, 10:45 AM   #13
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Warren Nolan uses a "Resid" model, which I assume is an abbreviation for residuals. That would imply some sort of regression, which do not deal with outliers very well. He doesn't show his methodology anywhere though, so it's impossible to tell what his model is really doing.

Nolan's Resid model has Penn as 2pt favorites against Villanova today. Kenpom shows them as 5pt underdogs. That's quite a difference.
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Old 12-11-2018, 08:20 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
Warren Nolan uses a "Resid" model, which I assume is an abbreviation for residuals. That would imply some sort of regression, which do not deal with outliers very well. He doesn't show his methodology anywhere though, so it's impossible to tell what his model is really doing.

Nolan's Resid model has Penn as 2pt favorites against Villanova today. Kenpom shows them as 5pt underdogs. That's quite a difference.
Penn wins !!!! hmmmmmmmm !!!
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Old 12-11-2018, 09:49 PM   #15
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Penn wins !!!! hmmmmmmmm !!!
by three points
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Old 12-11-2018, 09:52 PM   #16
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enjoying this carpet ride !!!!!
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Old 12-12-2018, 07:55 AM   #17
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Well that's it. Screw Kenpom. I'm only using Warren Nolan from now on. We're going 28-2. Apparently the last game of the season against Houston has been canceled.
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Old 12-12-2018, 08:18 AM   #18
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Well that's it. Screw Kenpom. I'm only using Warren Nolan from now on. We're going 28-2. Apparently the last game of the season against Houston has been canceled.
Why even play that game when we are favored already?
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