12-11-2018, 09:09 AM | #11 |
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To add to that I think Torvik has us at 24-7 probabilistic and 27-4 deterministic. It is still interesting that Nolan has us winning the next game (by 1) but we are 4 point dogs on Torvik site. Not sure how they can be that far off each other.
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12-11-2018, 09:23 AM | #12 | |
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Quote:
His stuff doesn't come near as close to mirroring Vegas lines as torvik and kpom. |
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12-11-2018, 10:45 AM | #13 |
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Warren Nolan uses a "Resid" model, which I assume is an abbreviation for residuals. That would imply some sort of regression, which do not deal with outliers very well. He doesn't show his methodology anywhere though, so it's impossible to tell what his model is really doing.
Nolan's Resid model has Penn as 2pt favorites against Villanova today. Kenpom shows them as 5pt underdogs. That's quite a difference. |
12-11-2018, 08:20 PM | #14 | |
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12-11-2018, 09:49 PM | #15 |
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12-11-2018, 09:52 PM | #16 |
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enjoying this carpet ride !!!!!
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12-12-2018, 07:55 AM | #17 |
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Well that's it. Screw Kenpom. I'm only using Warren Nolan from now on. We're going 28-2. Apparently the last game of the season against Houston has been canceled.
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12-12-2018, 08:18 AM | #18 |
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