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View Poll Results: What will our AAC record be?
16-2 or better 1 4.00%
15-3 1 4.00%
14-4 2 8.00%
13-5 5 20.00%
12-6 2 8.00%
11-7 9 36.00%
10-8 1 4.00%
9-9 3 12.00%
8-10 1 4.00%
7-11 or worse 0 0%
Voters: 25. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 12-25-2019, 02:13 PM   #11
sedziobs
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Originally Posted by Queens_NYC View Post
A 13-5 AAC record alone will not get us into the tournament. At the moment we have 7 potential Q1 games in league play. If we lose 5 of those, our poor record in Q1 games (let's say it's 2-8) will likely not even put us firmly on the bubble for the tournament.
If all five losses are against Q1 opponents, that means we will have swept the Q2 games without adding any more bad losses. I think we would be in with a 2-8 Q1 record and something like 6-1 against Q2.

I'd say 12-6 puts us on the bubble. Torvik has us going 10-8, so we definitely need to play better.

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Old 12-25-2019, 10:50 PM   #12
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The facts are we absolutely must either go undefeated or 14-2 or better to make the tourney.

Here why:
Bowling green is now a tier 3 loss after dropping back to back games to horrible teams

Colgate is a tier 3 loss

And then tenn just lost Lamont turner for the year. They were a farce even with him, they hadnít really beat any one good and now without turner will get pounded in the Sec. my guess is that CJBís first top 50 win might not even be top 75 by years end.

So we have 2 dreadfully bad losses in the same season, a tier 3 win against a very disappointing Vermont team and a home win against an overrated Tennessee team that is likely on a huge down turn.


This is the worst non conference resume UC has had since 2012 and sure that team went to the sweet 16 but that team also played in the big east with tons and tons of opportunity to corrects its resume.


This season is a wash. I guess we could always hope for some conference tourney magic but their are 4 or 5 teams that Iíd picked ahead of UC in that tourney.

Just gotta hope next year Is better. Itís all we can do.

I predicted 10-8 In the vote. But Iíll just do it game by game and see what I think hsppens:
UConn: win
@tulane: loss
Tulsa: win
@ucf: win
@memphis: loss
Ecu : win
@temple: loss
Smu: win
Houston: loss
@WSU : loss
@Uconn : loss
Memphis : loss
@ECU : win
UCF : win
WSU : loss
@Houston loss
@south Florida : loss
Temple : win

8-10

So when I do a game by game matchup I come up with 8-10 just because I think Ron hunter is going to give them hell at Tulane, and I donít think Iíve seen enough from Brannen to say he is going to win a lot of road games.

We need win 13 games just to get to 20 wins. I just have a hard time finding 13 games we should win
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Old 12-25-2019, 11:31 PM   #13
Goldpanner
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Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post
The facts are we absolutely must either go undefeated or 14-2 or better to make the tourney.

Here why:
Bowling green is now a tier 3 loss after dropping back to back games to horrible teams

Colgate is a tier 3 loss

And then tenn just lost Lamont turner for the year. They were a farce even with him, they hadnít really beat any one good and now without turner will get pounded in the Sec. my guess is that CJBís first top 50 win might not even be top 75 by years end.

So we have 2 dreadfully bad losses in the same season, a tier 3 win against a very disappointing Vermont team and a home win against an overrated Tennessee team that is likely on a huge down turn.


This is the worst non conference resume UC has had since 2012 and sure that team went to the sweet 16 but that team also played in the big east with tons and tons of opportunity to corrects its resume.


This season is a wash. I guess we could always hope for some conference tourney magic but their are 4 or 5 teams that Iíd picked ahead of UC in that tourney.

Just gotta hope next year Is better. Itís all we can do.

I predicted 10-8 In the vote. But Iíll just do it game by game and see what I think hsppens:
UConn: win
@tulane: loss
Tulsa: win
@ucf: win
@memphis: loss
Ecu : win
@temple: loss
Smu: win
Houston: loss
@WSU : loss
@Uconn : loss
Memphis : loss
@ECU : win
UCF : win
WSU : loss
@Houston loss
@south Florida : loss
Temple : win

8-10

So when I do a game by game matchup I come up with 8-10 just because I think Ron hunter is going to give them hell at Tulane, and I donít think Iíve seen enough from Brannen to say he is going to win a lot of road games.

We need win 13 games just to get to 20 wins. I just have a hard time finding 13 games we should win
I sure hope they beat UConn. I flew 6000 miles to go to that game 🤣🤣🤣🤣
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Old 12-26-2019, 12:26 AM   #14
sedziobs
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The facts are we absolutely must either go undefeated or 14-2 or better to make the tourney.
I assume you meant 16-2. Let's assume that Tennessee does fall out of the top 75 and we have zero Q1 or Q2 OOC wins and two bad losses. In league play we are likely going to have 7-8 Q1 games and 4-5 Q2 games. So if we go 15-3, we would have at least 8 quality wins and only 8 total losses. That is definitely a tournament resume.

It's actually very similar to Temple last season. They went 8-7 in Q1/Q2 games with 1 bad loss, then lost to Wichita St in the first round of the AAC tournament but still got an at-large bid. So 15-3 probably gets us in even in a worst case scenario. But if we get some breaks (Vermont/Tennessee top 75, Houston/Temple top 30, Tulane/USF top 135), we can lose a few more games and still be on the bubble.
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Old 12-26-2019, 09:22 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
I assume you meant 16-2. Let's assume that Tennessee does fall out of the top 75 and we have zero Q1 or Q2 OOC wins and two bad losses. In league play we are likely going to have 7-8 Q1 games and 4-5 Q2 games. So if we go 15-3, we would have at least 8 quality wins and only 8 total losses. That is definitely a tournament resume.

It's actually very similar to Temple last season. They went 8-7 in Q1/Q2 games with 1 bad loss, then lost to Wichita St in the first round of the AAC tournament but still got an at-large bid. So 15-3 probably gets us in even in a worst case scenario. But if we get some breaks (Vermont/Tennessee top 75, Houston/Temple top 30, Tulane/USF top 135), we can lose a few more games and still be on the bubble.

And what have you seen from this team that says we can go 15-3?

This is the worst offense weíve had since 2015, and the worst defense
Since 2009

15-3 is what we did under elite defensive coaching.

But to this point I see zero reason why we should ever expect this team to go 15-3

Iím not one but confident about beating UConn next Wednesday at home.

My point is.... the season is a wash because unless some miracle occurs, we have no chance to go 15-3

Add in that if we do go 15-3 the chances are we lose 3 games on the road which hurts your tier 1 wins.

Iím borderline confident that we lose twice to WSU, Memphis and Houston. They have better players or better coaches.
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Old 12-26-2019, 09:39 AM   #16
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I voted for 11-7, and I noted earlier that Torvik predicts 10-8. Neither would get us to the bubble. My rebuttal was to your claim "The facts are we absolutely must either go undefeated or 14-2 or better to make the tourney."
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Old 12-26-2019, 10:44 AM   #17
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Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
I voted for 11-7, and I noted earlier that Torvik predicts 10-8. Neither would get us to the bubble. My rebuttal was to your claim "The facts are we absolutely must either go undefeated or 14-2 or better to make the tourney."
Obviously I mean 16-2

I think those q3 losses will haunt us
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Old 12-26-2019, 10:46 AM   #18
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just say f it and put all the eggs in the win the conference tournament basket.
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Old 12-26-2019, 11:40 AM   #19
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Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post
And what have you seen from this team that says we can go 15-3?

This is the worst offense weíve had since 2015, and the worst defense
Since 2009

15-3 is what we did under elite defensive coaching.

But to this point I see zero reason why we should ever expect this team to go 15-3

Iím not one but confident about beating UConn next Wednesday at home.

My point is.... the season is a wash because unless some miracle occurs, we have no chance to go 15-3

Add in that if we do go 15-3 the chances are we lose 3 games on the road which hurts your tier 1 wins.

Iím borderline confident that we lose twice to WSU, Memphis and Houston. They have better players or better coaches.
I mean, to this point in the season, it's hard to disagree. There has been nothing so far this season that says we can pull it together and play better. But when things are going bad, its always hard to imagine them getting better until they do. I just find it hard to believe that we can be this bad all season. I think we eventually have to improve to some extent. Maybe not a top 25 team, but top 40ish. I could be dead wrong. Just holding out hope.
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Old 12-26-2019, 11:51 AM   #20
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If we don't have the Bowling Green loss, or the random Colgate loss, it's probably exactly where we thought we would be. At least record wise. Jarron hurt and playing terrible hurts this team a lot. Not blaming anyone, just is what it is. Kind of hard to get a grasp on this team if he is truly hurt. We will find out when we play Uconn. They are a decent team.

Last edited by cincyguy13; 12-26-2019 at 11:55 AM.
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