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Old 04-13-2021, 05:00 PM   #1
sedziobs
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Analytics

If people want to talk about analytics, let's put the discussion here.

Teams that use analytics perform better than comparable teams that do not. It's that simple. It's true in any sport.

In Moneyball, the Athletics lost in the end. Billy Beane is still there, and the Athletics still haven't won a World Series. Tampa Bay is the other early pioneer of analytics in baseball, and they have never won a World Series. Does that mean analytics failed? Of course not. They are lightyears ahead of similar small market teams. And analytics evolves. It used to be focused around OBP, but has now grown to include fielder position, spin rate, launch angle, and all kinds of other data. The idea is predictability. What measurable data can predict future performance and wins. It's not batting average, RBIs, ERA, or pitcher wins. Those values have become almost meaningless in modern baseball management.

The same thing is happening in basketball. Efficiency is much more important than raw stat totals. Knowing which players are most efficient shooting what type of shot in what locations is crucial to planning winning offense and defense given comparable talent.

Of course a coach needs to be able to attract players, develop their physical and mental skills, and implement strategies that the team can execute. It takes a lot of natural coaching talent and instincts to do that. Analytics is one tool to be used in building a good team. In the NBA it's much more important because it dictates who money is spent on, but at all levels it influences strategy and development. It is constantly evolving, and teams that are not on top of the latest innovations will be at a disadvantage relative to other teams with similar talent.

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Old 04-14-2021, 12:44 AM   #2
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Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
If people want to talk about analytics, let's put the discussion here.

Teams that use analytics perform better than comparable teams that do not. It's that simple. It's true in any sport.

In Moneyball, the Athletics lost in the end. Billy Beane is still there, and the Athletics still haven't won a World Series. Tampa Bay is the other early pioneer of analytics in baseball, and they have never won a World Series. Does that mean analytics failed? Of course not. They are lightyears ahead of similar small market teams. And analytics evolves. It used to be focused around OBP, but has now grown to include fielder position, spin rate, launch angle, and all kinds of other data. The idea is predictability. What measurable data can predict future performance and wins. It's not batting average, RBIs, ERA, or pitcher wins. Those values have become almost meaningless in modern baseball management.

The same thing is happening in basketball. Efficiency is much more important than raw stat totals. Knowing which players are most efficient shooting what type of shot in what locations is crucial to planning winning offense and defense given comparable talent.

Of course a coach needs to be able to attract players, develop their physical and mental skills, and implement strategies that the team can execute. It takes a lot of natural coaching talent and instincts to do that. Analytics is one tool to be used in building a good team. In the NBA it's much more important because it dictates who money is spent on, but at all levels it influences strategy and development. It is constantly evolving, and teams that are not on top of the latest innovations will be at a disadvantage relative to other teams with similar talent.
Itís great in baseball. Overrated in football and basketball
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Old 04-14-2021, 05:22 AM   #3
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Itís great in baseball. Overrated in football and basketball
If it doesnít work in basketball, Then why is everyone shooting a 3 or a layup?
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Old 04-14-2021, 08:04 AM   #4
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If it doesnít work in basketball, Then why is everyone shooting a 3 or a layup?

nba shot chart evolution
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Old 04-14-2021, 08:25 AM   #5
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If it doesnít work in basketball, Then why is everyone shooting a 3 or a layup?
You didnít need analytics to tell us that. Spots on court in basketball might be most beneficial. Besides if you ever went to shoot around 20yrs ago players either hung out around 3pt line or dunked. This isnít nothing new. In baseball the shifts were game changer. In basketball teams always doubled best players or left open weakest players.
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Old 04-14-2021, 08:41 AM   #6
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if you ever went to shoot around 20yrs ago players either hung out around 3pt line or dunked. This isnít nothing new.
How often those two things happen is what has changed. In the triangle offense days and then the Kobe years, midrange looks were the goal. Teams now deliberately turn down wide open midrange shots to focus on getting a three. Defenses responded by blitzing pnr situations to prevent even deep threes while leaving the midrange open. Offenses didn't take the open midrange, they started slipping screens to catch defenders between guarding two three point shooters. That's all the result of data telling coaches what is most efficient, not just players hanging out at the 3pt line because they want to.
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Old 04-14-2021, 09:10 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
How often those two things happen is what has changed. In the triangle offense days and then the Kobe years, midrange looks were the goal. Teams now deliberately turn down wide open midrange shots to focus on getting a three. Defenses responded by blitzing pnr situations to prevent even deep threes while leaving the midrange open. Offenses didn't take the open midrange, they started slipping screens to catch defenders between guarding two three point shooters. That's all the result of data telling coaches what is most efficient, not just players hanging out at the 3pt line because they want to.
From the college standpoint you can just look at Gonzaga.

Bartorvik started tracked where shots were taken in 2010. Here are some Gonzaga numbers for seasons.

2010 - 651 close 2's, 647 midrange 2's, 502 3's
2011 - 603 close 2's, 754 midrange 2's, 529 3's
2012 - 554 close 2's, 618 midrange 2's, 567 3's
2013 - 756 close 2's, 522 midrange 2's, 588 3's
a couple years of mixed offenses, but midrange and close 2's were close and then the aha moment.
2018 - 844 close 2's, 519 midrange 2's, 888 3's
2019 - 975 close 2's, 474 midrange 2's, 789 3's
2020 - 941 close 2's, 464 midrange 2's, 637 3's
2021 - 947 close 2's, 363 midrange 2's, 652 3's

Gonzaga has had the #1 offense in ADJO those last 3 years after averaging 23.7 the previous 9 seasons.
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Old 04-14-2021, 09:40 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by TheRealMick View Post
You didnít need analytics to tell us that. Spots on court in basketball might be most beneficial. Besides if you ever went to shoot around 20yrs ago players either hung out around 3pt line or dunked. This isnít nothing new. In baseball the shifts were game changer. In basketball teams always doubled best players or left open weakest players.
Youíre saying these analytics havenít effected basketball? Teams are shooting 30-40 3s a game. The traditional center is non existent. Itís completely changed the game of basketball.

Much like baseball. You can say these things are obviously but no one was playing the game this why before analytics
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Old 04-14-2021, 09:48 AM   #9
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Dirk, Durant, mcgrady all the great freak of natures changed the game. Yes analytics play big part but itís been around for years basically. Itís nothing new
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Old 04-14-2021, 09:54 AM   #10
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Hack a Shaq was around 25yrs ago. Analytics canít stop harden or lebron from getting 50. Teams been known where sweet spots been for years. Itís just something guys without eye test can understand what really going on. If a coach 75% analytics I donít want him. Iím more of 75/25
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