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Old 03-03-2018, 10:24 PM   #2231
cincrulz11
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Originally Posted by Jon Rycek View Post
Aw what about me

sorry chief, i just know ervins and i come from a similar background where mathematics and probability were very important to us.


you are no doubt being a great bearcat fan, as you always are.

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Old 03-03-2018, 10:31 PM   #2232
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You guys are being good Bearcats fans but terrible college basketball analysts.

We were gifted a victory at temple because of dunphys unlucky water bottle grab.,

Luck doesnít sink 2 clutch free throws after a sketchy foul call. Luck doesnít sink the and 1 on a 3 point foul.

Capitalizing on luck is a real thing and Iíll just call you a not so smart person if you donít think so.

Luck didnít win the big east for Xavier.

Add in that, I guess Xavier is lucky every year in the tourney and some how we are always just unlucky right ?
They beat the piss out of us too, I guess thatís luck as well.

Put away the homerism a bit and jus recognize that their senior class is clutch and knows how to win. They have an elite 8, a Sweet 16, and now a #1 seed for the first time ever. But yea, luck.

You guys made me defend Xavier. Thatís gross. But stupid basketball analysis is still stupid basketball analysis.
But luck allows you 2 free throws because Fran d wacks his water bottle. Luck is a part of it. Not always does the best team win the NCAA tournament, but matchups and luck goes a far way. Cincinnati has been on the other side of the luck thing for long enough. Time to right the ship. I'm not saying Xavier has done what it had done because there the luckiest team, but it helps to have luck on your side, but just like anything else, luck has to run out some time. I'd rather be unlucky all regular season and conference tournament time, and get lucky during the big dance.

Last edited by Defense first; 03-03-2018 at 10:34 PM.
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Old 03-03-2018, 10:49 PM   #2233
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But luck allows you 2 free throws because Fran d wacks his water bottle. Luck is a part of it. Not always does the best team win the NCAA tournament, but matchups and luck goes a far way. Cincinnati has been on the other side of the luck thing for long enough. Time to right the ship. I'm not saying Xavier has done what it had done because there the luckiest team, but it helps to have luck on your side, but just like anything else, luck has to run out some time. I'd rather be unlucky all regular season and conference tournament time, and get lucky during the big dance.
Right denying that we have been unlucky quite a few times is just funny. You don't get two game ending/tying half court shots in a season when your lucky haha
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Old 03-03-2018, 10:50 PM   #2234
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Originally Posted by cincrulz11 View Post
sorry chief, i just know ervins and i come from a similar background where mathematics and probability were very important to us.


you are no doubt being a great bearcat fan, as you always are.
Lol
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Old 03-03-2018, 11:45 PM   #2235
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Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post
Luck doesnít sink 2 clutch free throws after a sketchy foul call. Luck doesnít sink the and 1 on a 3 point foul.

Capitalizing on luck is a real thing and Iíll just call you a not so smart person if you donít think so.
Yeah, well, that's just, like, your opinion, man.

I happen to think clutch (and most other narratives) is imaginative. Free throws are random events determined by the shooter's probability of success. Successful free throws in high leverage situations is luck.

If Xavier's luck stat was due to good coaching, they would be consistently lucky every season. They're all over the map though. A few years ago they were #317.
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Old 03-04-2018, 06:01 AM   #2236
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This is my last attempt to explain this. I feel like my point of view about luck is being either misunderstood, or misrepresented. Either way, I'm going to clarify a few things.

In this thread, I was not referring to past seasons in regards to good draw, bad draw, or "unlucky vs lucky in the tournament in the tournament." That is a lot more subjective. We all have thoughts on it, but let's keep our focus on the kpom luck stat. I am specifically referring to the kpom luck stat. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Definition of kpom luck- basically it's discounting records in close games. Teams usually win and lose about half of their close games. Additionally, multiple studies have been done on the idea of winning close games being a skill (something predictive and reproducible) vs random fluctuations.

As far as I know, every single one has shown it's random fluctuations. For example, they would study teams in the first half of the year who won a disproportionate amount of close games. In the second half of the year, they tended to win almost exactly half of their future close games. The exact same thing happened with teams in the other end of the spectrum who were terrible in close games to start the season, would win about half of their future close games.

That is really strong evidence that "winning close games" isn't something that is a skill.

Additionally, if it's coaching, as sedz alluded to, you would expect to see the same teams, year in and year out rank near the top of the luck stat. But go back and look at past seasons. There is nothing to indicate the same teams are at the top of this metric year in and out.

Being lucky and being a really good team, aren't mutually exclusive. It's possible to be the best team in the country and also be the luckiest team.

One last thing to consider in regards to "clutchness." If I told you a player was performing way above their season averages between the 10 minute and 5 minute marks of the first half, I think most people's initial reaction is to say "well ok... But that's probably just a lot of statistical noise." No one writes an article saying, "He's a killer during that stretch. This player really knows how to turn it on between the 10 and 5 minute marks of the first half," because it sounds absolutely insane. Now apply the same reasoning to the end of the game. This is just another reason why I don't buy it.

Lastly, of course X is really good. They've also been very lucky this year too have the close game record they do. This doesn't mean they're going to lose their next close one, it just means they're not much, if any more likely than anyone else to win or lose a close game.

One more thing I'll touch on. When a 90% free throw shooter makes 2 FTs was he lucky? Stop and think. Yes. The expected value there is 1.8 points. We scored 2. We got 0.2 points above expectation there. That is fortunate. This doesn't mean making the FT is not a skill.

Same scenario. 50% guy makes both. We scored 1 point over expectation. We were lucky there too, but by a bigger amount.

Last edited by ervins84; 03-04-2018 at 06:11 AM.
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Old 03-04-2018, 09:57 AM   #2237
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Quote:
Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post
You guys are being good Bearcats fans but terrible college basketball analysts.

We were gifted a victory at temple because of dunphys unlucky water bottle grab.,

Luck doesnít sink 2 clutch free throws after a sketchy foul call. Luck doesnít sink the and 1 on a 3 point foul.

Capitalizing on luck is a real thing and Iíll just call you a not so smart person if you donít think so.

Luck didnít win the big east for Xavier.

Add in that, I guess Xavier is lucky every year in the tourney and some how we are always just unlucky right ?
They beat the piss out of us too, I guess thatís luck as well.

Put away the homerism a bit and jus recognize that their senior class is clutch and knows how to win. They have an elite 8, a Sweet 16, and now a #1 seed for the first time ever. But yea, luck.

You guys made me defend Xavier. Thatís gross. But stupid basketball analysis is still stupid basketball analysis.
So you cede the fact that UC was given that temple game, but then defend eggs luck as just being good?

You're being a good x fan, but a terrible apologist
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Old 03-04-2018, 10:56 AM   #2238
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This is my last attempt to explain this.
Well that sucks. That was one of the bests posts I've ever read on this site!
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Old 03-09-2018, 10:57 PM   #2239
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Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post
Their offense can not be stppped.

Only elite offensive teams will be able to take them down
.96 PPP vs providence in the loss. providence is 103 in offense on kenpom.
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Old 03-26-2018, 03:44 PM   #2240
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Zeke Upshaw for the Grand Rapids G League team collapsed on the court and was rushed to the hospital. He passed away this morning. Just awful.
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