Go Back   BearcatTalk.com > Cincinnati Basketball > Bearcat Basketball

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 01-14-2020, 01:23 PM   #671
waterhead
Senior Moderator
 
waterhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 9,298
waterhead is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post
We are playing much better

But caveat is that we’ve played the 11th toughest conference slate so far.

We’ve played 3 of the 4 worst defense and 3 of the 4 worst offenses.

Thursday is a chance to do it against a good team, in what will be a sold out and insanely tough environment


Let’s just get it done
For some reason I like to look at the "game score" graph on T-rank. It's basically a graph that shows the results vs predictions in games. We started off the year with 3 well above avg games when most teams didn't have any type of consistency and we only had 30% offense installed. Then we had 6 of our worst 7 games of the year. Likely a result of too much information and not knowing exactly where our players should be. Since then we lost to Iowa and Tulane but we had a reasonable chance at winning both. But the rest of our games since the melt down period have been in the 90th percentile. 4 of 6. And even Iowa and Tulane were above our worst 6 games.

So the trend is pointing up. Players are learning (Diara is a good example and MAW) but the coach is learning as well (Cumberland running point as an example). I like the trajectory but I am by no means sold. CJB is figuring it out and the players are starting to get comfortable. Is it too late? Can we keep the trajectory going up? If we can play Memphis to the wire I will be more confident...if we win I will start talking about the dance.
waterhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-14-2020, 03:11 PM   #672
sedziobs
Senior Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 2,395
sedziobs is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
For some reason I like to look at the "game score" graph on T-rank. It's basically a graph that shows the results vs predictions in games.
You've got the right idea, but the graph shows results as a rankings percentile. A perfectly average team would be 50. For example, our game score against Bowling Green was 51. Obviously we didn't outperform the prediction in that game. We played like a team ranked #175. Even worse, against Illinois St we played like a team ranked #226. Against Drake, UConn, and Tulsa we played like a top 10 team.

It is pretty cool, and all of your points are still valid.
sedziobs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-14-2020, 07:43 PM   #673
waterhead
Senior Moderator
 
waterhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 9,298
waterhead is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by sedziobs View Post
You've got the right idea, but the graph shows results as a rankings percentile. A perfectly average team would be 50. For example, our game score against Bowling Green was 51. Obviously we didn't outperform the prediction in that game. We played like a team ranked #175. Even worse, against Illinois St we played like a team ranked #226. Against Drake, UConn, and Tulsa we played like a top 10 team.

It is pretty cool, and all of your points are still valid.
Thanks for explaining that better. I understand the graph but I described it the wrong way. I like seeing us up in that 90th percentile with some consistency
waterhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-14-2020, 09:35 PM   #674
TheLongHaul
Epic Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 3,036
TheLongHaul is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by justinhub2003 View Post
Just because Memphis doesn’t look great doesn’t mean we should walk in to a hostile environment in Memphis with 18k fans and expect to win.

This would be biggest win of the John Brannen era. But also will be the most talents he’s coached against and probably the largest crowd.


Will be tough.
I'd argue OSU is more talented than a Wise-less Memphis. Attendance I would think would be pretty similar, with Memphis probably edging them out.
TheLongHaul is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-2020, 05:54 AM   #675
Queens_NYC
Epic Member
 
Queens_NYC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Posts: 1,655
Queens_NYC is on a distinguished road
UCF gets off to a big first half lead @Tulane and holds on in the second half to win 74-55. The unpredictability of the conference this year is quite fascinating.
Queens_NYC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-2020, 10:21 PM   #676
Lawrugby
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 438
Lawrugby is on a distinguished road
So Temple just beat 16 Withita State and Tulsa looks pretty for real ties for first with us Houston and Witchita State. Looks like the American will be beating each other up this year which probably will hurt our at large bids but so be it. Parity is a good thing as far as the individual games go. It looks like we will be lucky to get three teams in if things keep going this way with “upsets” being more the rule than the exception. But if we send three and one goes deep that would be better than sending 5 who fizz in the second round.
Lawrugby is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-15-2020, 11:44 PM   #677
Jon Rycek
Epic Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2016
Posts: 2,183
Jon Rycek is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by waterhead View Post
12-6 is the predicted 2nd place finisher (Memphis) in conference on T-rank. We are predicted T-3 with Houston at 11-7. WSU is predicted 15-3. If we can steal one on the road Thursday we might have a decent chance at 2nd in conference. I don't see us (right now) having a shot at 1st place.
It’s hard to always take those predictions too seriously. Obviously there is a lot of data that goes into them, but as far as I know it’s a generic average. It’s no weighted to a teams current trends, as it the past five games mean more towards the rankings than the first five games, or whatever. So teams trending upwards, which I think we played our two best halves of basketball in the second halves against UCF and Tulsa. Would love to see them stringing 40 minutes of that play. Playing like that, we stand a very good chance against any team and our conference, and probably most teams in all college basketball this year. Still a good ways from that, but certainly possible. I really think they’re starting to mesh better and better. Easy to forget how hard it is for all these new guys to get on the same page. Look how difficult it is even with a bunch of one and done guys like at UK. Obviously they’ve got a ton of talent and they still go through plenty of growing pains. Anyway, I think we got a good shot against Memphis. First place will IMO be hard to get away from Wichita, from what I’ve seen they’re pretty damn good this year. But I don’t think second is a reach, and with some pretty decent teams in our league, really not any terrible ones. That second place coupled with a couple wins in the conference tournament, might be all we need to get in this year.
Jon Rycek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2020, 05:39 AM   #678
cincyguy13
Epic Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 4,633
cincyguy13 is on a distinguished road
I still think WSU is a year away from being really good. They could still win the league but I think Houston will win it again. If we can not. Houston plays hard every night and are going to be in every game.
cincyguy13 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-16-2020, 08:16 AM   #679
waterhead
Senior Moderator
 
waterhead's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 9,298
waterhead is on a distinguished road
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon Rycek View Post
It’s hard to always take those predictions too seriously. Obviously there is a lot of data that goes into them, but as far as I know it’s a generic average. It’s no weighted to a teams current trends, as it the past five games mean more towards the rankings than the first five games, or whatever. So teams trending upwards, which I think we played our two best halves of basketball in the second halves against UCF and Tulsa. Would love to see them stringing 40 minutes of that play. Playing like that, we stand a very good chance against any team and our conference, and probably most teams in all college basketball this year. Still a good ways from that, but certainly possible. I really think they’re starting to mesh better and better. Easy to forget how hard it is for all these new guys to get on the same page. Look how difficult it is even with a bunch of one and done guys like at UK. Obviously they’ve got a ton of talent and they still go through plenty of growing pains. Anyway, I think we got a good shot against Memphis. First place will IMO be hard to get away from Wichita, from what I’ve seen they’re pretty damn good this year. But I don’t think second is a reach, and with some pretty decent teams in our league, really not any terrible ones. That second place coupled with a couple wins in the conference tournament, might be all we need to get in this year.
They can change after any game. WSU went from predicted 15-3 to 13-5 after a single game. It's not an exact science just a barometer. We are playing much better as Brannen figures out the right combinations on the court and continues to sharpen up the roles. If we keep improving we have a shot to still make some noise this year. I still expect a bump here and there but not as many as early season.
waterhead is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-23-2020, 06:29 AM   #680
PSmitty23
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 2
PSmitty23 is on a distinguished road
Tulsa beat Memphis 80-40?! What the hell is that all about? WOW
PSmitty23 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Bookmarks


Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump



Powered by vBulletin® Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd., - All material on this Cincinnati Bearcat discussion forum is strictly for entertainment purposes only. This site and any pages within are in no way affiliated with the University of Cincinnati. Any images, copyrights, or trademarks used on this site are used under the "Fair Use Provision" of the Copyright Act for purposes of comment, criticism, and news reporting.