UCF

[justinhub2003]

Next Up: UCF
Wednesday Feb 8th @ 9pm on ESPNU

UC Kenpom Rank: #21

UCF Kenpom: #70
Kenpom Offense: #198
Kenpom Defense: #17

Kenpom score Prediction: UC 67 UCF 56

Scouting UCF:

What they do well:
--Play Defense: This will be one of the toughest tests our offenses has all year. UCF comes in at #17 in defensive Efficiency, #2 in Effective FG% Defense, #6 in Defensive Rebound %, #19 in Foul rate, #8 in 3 point defense, & #2 in 2pt Defense. All While being one of the absolute worst teams in the country at generating TO and steals (#351 in both). They do it by playing Zone with Tacko Fall in the middle of it. Because he takes up so much space in the paint, they are able to extend their guards out to be effective at guarding the 3. Usually when we you see a team who mostly plays Zone, you expect them not to be #8 in 3 point defense.

What they Struggle with:
--Offense and scoring: This is a team who could be a top 50 team or better if they had a better offense. They aren't very efficient on offense and Tend to get the ball stolen a lot (#321 in steal %). They shoot terribly from the free throw line and Not very good from 3. Their 2 point FG % is a bit inflated by Tacko Fall's outstanding numbers. But overall, this team stays in most games because of the work they do on the other end.


Other Notes:
Im intrigued to see how this game plays out. Against UCONN and one of the best shot blocking 7 footers in the country, UC's bigs weren't intimidated even a little bit and dominated both Brimah and 6'10 Kentan Facey. But how well will Kyle and Gary handle a 7'6 guy who keeps improving? No doubt, we have far better moves and are much quicker, but that kinda height make up for quickness and finesse. UC needs to push the pace in the this one and try to beat the zone down the floor and score in transition. Also do what you can to wear out Tacko and get him in foul trouble. I was happy we destroyed Brimah on the offensive end But i was a little concerned that we couldn't foul out a guy who makes a habit out of it. UC needs to watch out for Matt Williams. He's an ultra volume 3 point shooter ( He has taken 226 shots from 3 and made 88, which is good for a 39%). We may want to face guard him like we did Blueitt just to keep him out of a groove. He averages 10 3 pointers a game. He is the only way they keep it close. They get fouled a lot but generally suck from the line.


My best hope is we shoot them into regretting they played zone. But they will no doubt be looking for their first huge road kill of the season. They just beat Memphis after losing 4 straight, 3 of which were on the road.

[Queens_NYC]

The only time I've watched UCF this year was when they played Temple at home right after we squeaked out a win in Philly. They showed that they could be a very good team on both ends of the floor with lots of weapons.

Since then, the only conference road game UCF has won so far was @ Tulane in December. I like us to win by about 15 points.

[CPAW29]

Asking a 7 footer to guard bigs that are decent outside shooters is tough task. Brimah struggled trying to guard Washington because he dropping threes and pulling him away from the post. It's nice having two guys that can post and hit the occasional three.

[justinhub2003]

It was at home for them but they absolutely spanked Memphis from tip to finish.

[justinhub2003]

Originally Posted by CPAW29

Asking a 7 footer to guard bigs that are decent outside shooters is tough task. Brimah struggled trying to guard Washington because he dropping threes and pulling him away from the post. It's nice having two guys that can post and hit the occasional three.

It won't matter as much as they play zone mostly. Tacko ain't leaving his spot so if our bigs miss those outside shots then it's probably a one and done trip.

[#BearcatNation]

Originally Posted by justinhub2003

But how well will Kyle and Gary handle a 7'6 guy who keeps improving?

Be careful being so liberal with that. Tacko has regressed a little lately.

First 14 games: 26.9 min, 15.4 ppg, 11.5 reb, 2.5 blk, 0.9 ast, .844 FG%
Last 9 games: 24.8 min, 7.7 ppg, 7.3 reb, 2.2 blk, 0.2 ast, .547 FG%

I feel like the season must really take a toll on a guy that size. Wonder if he's getting tired.

[waterhead]

Kyle and Gary both had a huge game against UConn who is very good at blocking shots. Kyle's shot is very tough to guard with how fast he puts his shots up...it's almost unpredictable to time the block. That said it will be interesting what happens with Tacko. He doesn't need to time it as much because he can just stay on his feet longer. It didn't hurt that Kyle and Gary's outside shots were falling...I don't know if we can drag Tacko out of the paint...but I doubt it. We need to take advantage of when he's not in the game.

I worry more about our away game with UCF because of our poor shooting on the road. At home I think at least 2-3 of our guys will get somewhat hot. We may need some mid range shooting with Tacko in the paint and they extend their D on the 3 point line.

I hope Evans gets going again...he has been average to not good lately. If we don't get in foul trouble...we should be fine though.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by waterhead

Kyle and Gary both had a huge game against UConn who is very good at blocking shots. Kyle's shot is very tough to guard with how fast he puts his shots up...it's almost unpredictable to time the block. That said it will be interesting what happens with Tacko. He doesn't need to time it as much because he can just stay on his feet longer. It didn't hurt that Kyle and Gary's outside shots were falling...I don't know if we can drag Tacko out of the paint...but I doubt it. We need to take advantage of when he's not in the game.

I worry more about our away game with UCF because of our poor shooting on the road. At home I think at least 2-3 of our guys will get somewhat hot. We may need some mid range shooting with Tacko in the paint and they extend their D on the 3 point line.

I hope Evans gets going again...he has been average to not good lately. If we don't get in foul trouble...we should be fine though.

In conference...Evans has been very very average with a PER of 15. Out of our 5 best scoring options he is dead last in conference per 40 minutes. Cumberland has been much more effective in conference even if he's been inconsistent. Outside shooting has been better and his ability to get to the rack and make a bucket or draw a foul has been better as well. I don't know what is going on with Jacob but I'm sure he is getting a lot of attention on D. Hopefully a guy like Cumberland can take some of that attention away. I don't think KJ worries any opposing D (taking pressure off Jacob) but Jarron can.

We need Evans to get back to being confident.

[WAITE HOYT 2]

Originally Posted by waterhead

In conference...Evans has been very very average with a PER of 15. Out of our 5 best scoring options he is dead last in conference per 40 minutes. Cumberland has been much more effective in conference even if he's been inconsistent. Outside shooting has been better and his ability to get to the rack and make a bucket or draw a foul has been better as well. I don't know what is going on with Jacob but I'm sure he is getting a lot of attention on D. Hopefully a guy like Cumberland can take some of that attention away. I don't think KJ worries any opposing D (taking pressure off Jacob) but Jarron can.

We need Evans to get back to being confident.

People may think I'm crazy but Quadri could be a factor in this game. his mobility and his outside shot may give The big guy fits if Washington or Clark gets a foul or two. Moore can knock down a three.

[HoosierCat]

Originally Posted by WAITE HOYT 2

People may think I'm crazy but Quadri could be a factor in this game. his mobility and his outside shot may give The big guy fits if Washington or Clark gets a foul or two. Moore can knock down a three.

You may be right! Washington and Clark hitting jumpers and dishing to one another from 16 in will be a key.