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Old 04-27-2022, 05:08 PM   #221
sedziobs
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Nolley it is!
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Old 04-27-2022, 05:22 PM   #222
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Nolley is by far our biggest addition in the transfer portal. Glad he came here. I'm a bit surprised he didn't get an NIL deal to go elsewhere (or maybe we are getting in the NIL game).
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Old 04-27-2022, 05:41 PM   #223
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Looking at the Memphis forum thread on Landers there are two things that stand out. One is they say he's inconsistent, hit-or-miss type player (similar to DDJ and Davenport I guess). The other is that he played with a knee injury during the season, so if he gets healthy he may be better than he seemed to be last year.
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Old 04-27-2022, 07:36 PM   #224
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skyblade View Post
Nolley is by far our biggest addition in the transfer portal. Glad he came here. I'm a bit surprised he didn't get an NIL deal to go elsewhere (or maybe we are getting in the NIL game).
We are in the NIL game to some degree. It would seem to a degree that’s good enough for a big pickup! This is a big get!!
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Old 04-27-2022, 08:06 PM   #225
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As always once we sign a guy I look more closely at his stats.

The big reason for optimism with Nolley is his assist rate. It was excellent and 2nd on Memphis. Combine that with a guy who's big enough and moves well enough to play multiple positions (2-4) and there's a lot of versatility. He seems to be a good, but not great defender and average rebounder. Not particularly bouncy and doesn't really play above the rim (though the rumored knee injury may have something to do with that).

Shooting wise, I don't like what I see. He shot an almost identical percentage from three as Newman. From two his close 2 to far 2 ratio was 1:5.3, meaning he shot 1 close 2 for every 5.3 long 2's. Only 22 close 2's to 118 long 2's. Newman in comparison shot 67 close 2's and 57 far 2's (1.1:1 ratio). Translation, Nolley really likes pull up jumpers and not to take it to the rim. Unfortunately he doesn't shoot them that well and the long 2 (as I've harped on with DDJ and Ezikpe as well) is the worst shot in basketball.

TO's are a little high and from what I've watched and based on his EFG% his shot selection is questionable (shooting a bunch of long 2's is the big problem). I really hope Wes gets better shot selection out of guys next year, because it seems like we increase the number of guys who like to chuck bad shots (DDJ, Davenport, Ezikpe and Nolley).

It boils down to we want Nolley passing (which he does very well, though with a more TO's than would be ideal) and not shooting. Which means like with DDJ he needs guys around him who he can pass to and they can finish. On paper we have fewer three point shooting threats than last year, which may make the finishing part difficult.

Looking at three point shooting percentage is quite frankly scary for next years team. We have one guy who shot better than .336% last year and that's Davenport. Last year we had 3 who shot .359% or better (Mason, Saunders and Davenport). This year our best shooters are Newman .333%, Nolley .336% and Davenport .359%. Skillings/Reed (or Vik/Hensley/Ody) may earn more playing time than expected if they can knock down threes at a somewhat reasonable rate.

Last edited by skyblade; 04-27-2022 at 08:10 PM.
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Old 04-27-2022, 08:45 PM   #226
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Nolley is a good enough ball handler and passer that he could play a point forward role. In an ideal world, that means DDJ could be an off ball 1 and we could run a longer guy like Newman out there at the 2. If we did that I'd be more comfortable with Davenport at the 4, which would give us more shooting while having enough length to compensate for defensive weaknesses.

To Skyblade's point, he's not an efficient scorer with only a 50.6 career true shooting percentage. While that's not great, it's in line with most of our team. But he is a creator, which is something we have been lacking.

We are bringing in 4 players between 6'5" and 6'8", and we didn't lose anyone in that range. We're moving towards a versatile positionless basketball type of roster.
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Old 04-28-2022, 06:19 AM   #227
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skyblade View Post

Shooting wise, I don't like what I see. He shot an almost identical percentage from three as Newman.

He's a much better shooter than Newman. Newman is a 30.6 career 3 point shooter on 222 attempts. Nolley is 34.5 % on 493 attempts. So 1.035 points per shot vs .915 points per shot, big difference. He's also a 79% ft shooter vs newmans 67%.

The part you're dead on his is shot selection. He takes a lot of bad ones, but Wes is gonna let him do it here cause thats what we do.

If somehow we have a philosophy change and work to get those awful midrange shots out of our game, he's gonna see his efficiency go way up. But when you take more long 2's than any other shot, your efficiency is going to be bad.
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Old 04-28-2022, 07:15 AM   #228
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He's a much better shooter than Newman. Newman is a 30.6 career 3 point shooter on 222 attempts. Nolley is 34.5 % on 493 attempts. So 1.035 points per shot vs .915 points per shot, big difference. He's also a 79% ft shooter vs newmans 67%.

The part you're dead on his is shot selection. He takes a lot of bad ones, but Wes is gonna let him do it here cause thats what we do.

If somehow we have a philosophy change and work to get those awful midrange shots out of our game, he's gonna see his efficiency go way up. But when you take more long 2's than any other shot, your efficiency is going to be bad.
Landers had a really good season as a Sophomore shooting 38.6% from 3 which is what pulls his average up. Though he still shot 98 long 2's to 40 close 2's.

The big difference in that season is that 93.8% of his threes were assisted (Bartorvik). Last year only 73% of his threes were assisted, as a freshman he shot 31.6% with 85.3% assisted. This would seem to indicate that he can probably make a high percentage of open, catch-and-shoot threes. But he is not a guy you want creating his own shot (from anywhere frankly).

As you say, shot selection is the biggest issue. Take only open catch-and-shoot threes and cut out the long 2's and he'd likely be a really good shooter. Though if he did that his usage would probably go way down. If Wes doesn't do something about shot selection (for him, Nolley, Ezikpe and DDJ), we are in for a long season of bad shots.
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Old 04-28-2022, 07:28 AM   #229
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Great Addition!

Could Davenport be squeezed out of the starting line up? Or see a sizable decrease in his minutes?

Hopefully he's putting the work in, knowing that there is now more in house competition. This may also get the best out of Davenport going forward.

Only time will tell.
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Old 04-28-2022, 07:53 AM   #230
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Great Addition!

Could Davenport be squeezed out of the starting line up? Or see a sizable decrease in his minutes?

Hopefully he's putting the work in, knowing that there is now more in house competition. This may also get the best out of Davenport going forward.

Only time will tell.
I've become less convinced Davenport's minutes will go down. Davenport is the only proven sharpshooter on the team. Hard to put the only shooter on the bench when you've got a team full of not very good shooters.

If some other guys can knock down 35+% from three, it becomes easier to move Davenport to the bench. But until other guys prove it, Davenport is the only one you can really trust to knock down threes.
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