Realignment

[Jon Rycek]

Damn Yal really reaching on these lol. These are huge realignments, not just adding teams, why the hell would Duke and UNC leave the ACC for the SEC lmao. None of that makes any sense at all, why would they try to shift to a completely different type of conference. We are talking about adding a couple teams to each. ACC TV deal already or not certainly can add a single team to top off at 16. Big 10 is not out of the question as many of your like to think. But I do believe SEC or Big 12 are out most likely landing spots, but I think think we would fit in well in the ACC too. We go back to out rivalry with Louisville, we add another string basketball program to their conference, and add probably what would be a top 3 football program in their conference.

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by Jon Rycek

These are huge realignments, not just adding teams, why the hell would Duke and UNC leave the ACC for the SEC lmao. None of that makes any sense at all, why would they try to shift to a completely different type of conference. We are talking about adding a couple teams to each.

This is easy to answer. The general allotments from the SEC and Big Ten are huge. The ACC pays out about $30 million per school. The SEC and Big Ten are around $50 million, which they can grow even bigger by bringing in more rich schools. Clemson is not happy about getting considerably less money from the ACC compared to their rivals at Alabama, Georgia, Ohio St, etc.
rubbingtherock.com/2021/02/06/clemson-football-acc-revenue/

Conference alignment is a business decision. Everybody wants into the top two conferences. They will have their choice, and I don't think our under $70 million athletic revenue program is going to look very attractive compared to the top half ACC/Big12 programs that bring in twice as much money.

Texas brings in 3 times as much as us, and they like to exert control which is why they won't join the SEC. But they would be the biggest Pac12 program by far.

Edit: The Pac12 also pays about $30 million. The Big12 is about $40 million (thanks to Texas and Oklahoma). UC got $6 million from the AAC.

[sedziobs]

On a related note, each NCAA tournament win up to the final four means about $280k to that team's conference. So Houston's run just earned the conference over $1 million, about $100k for UC.

[sedziobs]

I'll keep musing about this to fill the time.

My initial scenarios were based almost exclusively on revenue with consideration to geography. There will be a lot of politics as well. The Big10, ACC, and Pac12 like to maintain some semblance of an academic reputation (AAU schools). And there would be a culture clash between the the liberal secular institutions of the Pac12 and some of the conservative religious institutions in the interior (TCU, Baylor, BYU, SMU) that might prevent them joining.

I think those will be the main negotiation points in the next round. Sports performance and facilities are what we like to talk about here since we can control that, but they don't mean much. Those conferences know that whoever they pick can build out their facilities if they are suddenly receiving $30+ million a year. Our lack of AAU standing hurts us with the Big10 and ACC. We don't bring in enough money for the SEC. Texas doesn't want to share their revenue with more small Big12 programs. We would be helped by a big shakeup rather than hope to be added to an existing conference.

Given the politics, Kansas would be a better fit than Oklahoma in the Big10 (both academics and geography). Missouri also fits in the Big10 as a Kansas pairing. Vanderbilt is a better fit for the ACC. So if the SEC drops those two schools, it can pick up Clemson, Florida St, Louisville, and Oklahoma. TCU could also be an option. If Texas joins the Pac12, secular schools that could follow are Texas Tech & OK St. They might even consider programs like Rice and New Mexico that fit well politically.

The first domino to fall will dictate everything. My scenarios so far have the SEC making the first move, being the behemoth that doesn't really have academic or political standards to uphold. If they take Oklahoma, the Big12 is basically dead and Texas will have to jump to the Pac12. However, the Big12 could be proactive and make the first move. They could bring in the top 6 Pac12 programs (USC, UCLA, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, AZ St). Those programs would be abandoning their academic and culture club for money, which I could see happening since the highest standard schools Stanford and Cal wouldn't join. Washington is the tricky one in this scenario. They are a top 10 global university, but also the biggest athletics program (and furthest geographically).

In either scenario we would be looking to join with the leftover ACC schools, possibly leftover Big12 schools too.

[Red_N_Black_Attack]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

If the SEC wants a 20 team super-conference that excludes Texas, I think they'd go after Florida St, Clemson, Louisville, UNC, and Duke from the ACC and Oklahoma and TCU from the Big 12. Vandy would be kicked out. The ACC is just as fragile as the Big 12 in my opinion.

Realistically, the Big Ten will be looking to keep pace in the next realignment. The same programs will be targets (basically schools with $110+ mil revenue). Florida St & Clemson to the SEC and Oklahoma & Louisville to the Big Ten seems like a logical next step to 16 team conferences. In that case, Texas and TCU may go to the Pac12, perhaps along with a couple other teams like Kansas and BYU.

Everyone else would be hoping to form a 16 team conference that will be seen as on the same level. Assuming only two other Big12 teams follow Texas to the Pac12, these 9 teams are likely included:

West Virginia, Texas Tech, Iowa St, OK St, Baylor
Duke, Virginia, UNC, Miami

Which means these 15 teams (maybe more) are fighting for 7 spots.

Kansas St, VTech, Pitt, NC St, Georgia Tech, BC, Syracuse, Wake Forest
Cincinnati, SMU, Houston, UCF, USF, Memphis, East Carolina

The ACC Grant of Rights will almost kill any chance of the SEC or Big 10 poaching an ACC school. As I understand it, any money from new conference affiliation up to current value of ACC contract goes to ACC if a school moves, so they would need to double revenue just to break even. The ACC could expand by 1-2 schools and add value to overall contract, but the member school shares would remain the same, unless a school agreed to a partial share for x years. The Big 12 contract is up, so schools could accept offers to become full members immediately and receive all of that tv/media revenue. I just have a hunch the SEC will be proactive and the Big 12 reacts too late. I further believe the SEC wants nothing to do with Texas or Texas politics since they have A&M. I do not see the SEC being disloyal to schools like Vandy or Missouri, so adding six to 20 is the boldest proactive move to add games the networks will pay additional dollars to see. A game of the week in Hotlanta on Thursday night would generate almost as much money as a bowl game, and each team gets a share so it is great for the conference.

It might be wishful thinking that UC is one of the six, but it makes sense for the SEC. UC is 90 minutes from the Lexington, plus it establishes a firm foothold into the fertile SW Ohio recruiting area dominated by Ohio State, Notre Dame, and the rest of the Big Ten. Oklahoma, Ok St, and Iowa St might be the only Big 12 programs of interest for football, so they need three more schools. Surely UC and UCF are two of them. Take your pick from Memphis, S Florida, or possibly SMU for the third team.

Whatever expansion happens, it will be driven by networks desire to see high level matchups week in and week out. The SEC is not hurting by playing more than 8 conference games, one tough OOC game, and four cupcakes.

[sedziobs]

I wasn't aware of the ACC grant of rights. That definitely changes things. If the ACC is looking to add one or two schools, our profile fits there better than most AAC schools (certainly compared to Memphis or East Carolina). We're not an AAU member, but we are close to a top 100 global university. That puts us above Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College, Clemson, Louisville, Miami, and everyone in the AAC except Tulane. Depending on how important academics is, they could even take a look at Buffalo (an AAU member).

With the Big 12 being the only vulnerable conference, I'd think the SEC would take Oklahoma and TCU and stop there. Kansas to the Big Ten still makes a ton of sense. I'm not sure who else they'd consider. Missouri certainly fits. Maybe they also look at Buffalo. I can't see the Big Ten abandoning their AAU credentials.

If Texas goes to the Pac12, I think they look at New Mexico and Colorado St to stay in line with academics and politics. That stuff matters. I'm not sure who a 16th team would be. Texas Tech or OK St maybe. Rice is probably too small.

[Red_N_Black_Attack]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

I wasn't aware of the ACC grant of rights. That definitely changes things. If the ACC is looking to add one or two schools, our profile fits there better than most AAC schools (certainly compared to Memphis or East Carolina). We're not an AAU member, but we are close to a top 100 global university. That puts us above Syracuse, Wake Forest, Boston College, Clemson, Louisville, Miami, and everyone in the AAC except Tulane. Depending on how important academics is, they could even take a look at Buffalo (an AAU member).

With the Big 12 being the only vulnerable conference, I'd think the SEC would take Oklahoma and TCU and stop there. Kansas to the Big Ten still makes a ton of sense. I'm not sure who else they'd consider. Missouri certainly fits. Maybe they also look at Buffalo. I can't see the Big Ten abandoning their AAU credentials.

If Texas goes to the Pac12, I think they look at New Mexico and Colorado St to stay in line with academics and politics. That stuff matters. I'm not sure who a 16th team would be. Texas Tech or OK St maybe. Rice is probably too small.

I'm pretty sure Oklahoma and Ok St are a package deal, can't have one without the other. Missouri is already in the SEC. Kansas is a perfect fit for the Big Ten, just like Rutgers and Maryland, they want good basketball and be able to say football improved because of the Big Ten. Buffalo to the ACC, now that makes sense. I don't see the ACC expanding because it doesn't get them anywhere near the money the other big four conferences make. The 20 year GoR deal they signed in 2016 was panned at the time as limiting the conference growth, both in growing revenue and adding schools. As to academics, UC is right there with any of the P-5 schools, except maybe Northwester, Vandy, and Stanford. It shall be interesting to watch.

[sedziobs]

Before I learned of the ACC's grant of rights, I came up with these potential realignments to four 16-team conferences. Who knows, maybe the SEC somehow manages to overcome that.

The scenario where the ACC dissolves has the SEC striking first, taking Oklahoma, Florida St, Clemson, and Louisville.

The scenario where the Pac12 dissolves has the Big12 striking first, stabilizing itself with the upper echelon of the Pac12. The ACC is more academics focused in this scenario, taking on Buffalo and UMass.

I think the AAC should consider adding Buffalo and UMass right now. Increased presence in the northeast after UConn's departure, considerably strengthens the academic reputation.

[sedziobs]

Originally Posted by Red_N_Black_Attack

As to academics, UC is right there with any of the P-5 schools, except maybe Northwester, Vandy, and Stanford.

Every Big Ten school was an AAU member when they were invited (Nebraska was recently kicked out for lacking a medical school). We are not, which seems to be a giant hurdle for us. Half of the ACC are also AAU members, as is most of the Pac12. Schools that you wouldn't think of as good football programs like Kansas and Buffalo will get a look purely based on their AAU membership for the conferences that care about that.

Edit: I just noticed that Iowa St is an AAU member. So Kansas and Iowa St to the Big Ten makes sense. And if OK and OK St are a package deal, I'm sure the SEC would take them both.

[sedziobs]

Including the insights from RedNBlack, I think the attached is the most plausible scenario if the SEC and Big Ten poach the Big 12, and Texas and the Pac12 mutually decide to grow to 16 teams. The ACC just adds Buffalo. SEC takes Oklahoma and Oklahoma St. Big Ten takes Kansas and Iowa St.

The Big 12 becomes a conference of leftovers that's not really in a better position than what we have now. The ACC would also be in a much worse position, since they would easily be outclassed by the Big Ten, SEC, and Pac12.

It could work out well for us if Texas decides not to leave even if Oklahoma and Kansas are poached. We would for sure be included if the Big12 grows beyond 10 members, and Texas would bring in a lot more money than the AAC.

Adding Oklahoma gains the SEC a lot. I'm not convinced they really need or want to expand to 20. I'd be thrilled if we are part of that though.

We really should push to become an AAU member. I know we've been a prospect for a decade now.