Bracketology

Queens_NYC · 03-11-2019, 04:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedziobs

I think if we make the AAC finals we'll likely be a 6 win or lose. Anything less and we'll likely be a 7. Of course other teams making big moves could change things.

That seems pretty likely to me. We're still the highest 7 seed on Bracket Matrix (6.72 average) and the three 6 seeds ahead of us (Villanova, Buffalo, Auburn) are all pretty vulnerable to early (pre-finals) upsets in their respective conference tourneys.

**sedziobs** · 03-12-2019, 12:48 PM

With Wofford now done for the season, I think they're looking pretty good for a 6 seed. They are now 3-4 in Q1 and 6-0 in Q2 with no bad losses. Compare that to our 4-4 in Q1, 6-1 in Q2 with a bad loss. Plus, Wofford is 14 in NET, 15 in BPI and 18 in Kenpom. Each of those is considerably better than us.

ThomasMac · 03-12-2019, 01:55 PM

Lunardi has us as a 7 seed against Oklahoma with the winner playing LSU. This would be ideal if we do end up a 7 seed. With the potential to play a 2 seed going through that kind of turmoil, I'll take that any day.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

Jon Rycek · 03-13-2019, 04:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ThomasMac

Lunardi has us as a 7 seed against Oklahoma with the winner playing LSU. This would be ideal if we do end up a 7 seed. With the potential to play a 2 seed going through that kind of turmoil, I'll take that any day.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

My lord I would love to get matched with LSU, I’d almost guarantee a win.

**sedziobs** · 03-15-2019, 10:54 PM

With our seeding competition doing very well, I think a 6 seed is now only possible if we win the AAC tourney. Even if we do we might still get a 7.

Jon Rycek · 03-15-2019, 11:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sedziobs

With our seeding competition doing very well, I think a 6 seed is now only possible if we win the AAC tourney. Even if we do we might still get a 7.

If we beat Houston we would definitely move into a 6 seed

**sedziobs** · 03-15-2019, 11:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Jon Rycek

If we beat Houston we would definitely move into a 6 seed

If Auburn, Villanova and Iowa St win their conference tournaments, we would say the same about them. That's the problem - the 6 seeds are making it really tough to pass them. Now that we play Wichita instead of Temple, our only Q1 opportunity would be the final. I'm not saying a 6 seed is unlikely if we beat Houston, only that it's far from certain. Only one way to find out though.

**sedziobs** · 03-16-2019, 10:01 AM

March 16 bracketology update per Dave Ommen (Q1,Q2,Q3/4 loss)

6 Iowa St (7-7,3-4,0)
6 Maryland (6-8,6-1,1)
6 Auburn (3-7,12-2,0)
6 Cincinnati (4-4,7-1,1)
7 Nevada (1-1,7-1,2)
7 Buffalo (2-1,5-1,1)
7 Wofford (3-4,6-0,0)
7 Louisville (4-11,5-1,1)

Still clinging to a 6 seed. Nevada fell from a 5 all the way to a 7 with their loss. Wofford seems underseeded to me. Their resume looks better than most of the 6 seeds to my eye.

**sedziobs** · 03-16-2019, 10:17 AM

There have been so many bid stealers this year that a few more would force a 10 seed matchup in the First Four. San Diego St, Bowling Green, Oregon, and possibly Grand Canyon, Memphis or Wichita St could make that happen. I assume they are still abiding by the rule that conference champs cannot be in a play-in game (other than the 16 seeds). So we could potentially play the winner of a First Four game whether we are a 6 or a 7.

kskenyon4 · 03-16-2019, 11:30 AM

Fascinated to see where we're seeded compared to the below teams, if we beat Wich St, and lose to Houston. We would have 12 Q1/Q2 wins, one poor loss. How does the committee treat that compared to:

Marquette - lower NET, more Q1/Q2 wins, but lost 5 of last 6.
Nevada - slightly higher NET, less Q1/Q2 wins, 2 Q3 losses so equal treatment for losses. If you look at their average NET rankings in wins and losses, Cincy is far superior - their average win is over 154, and losses to 112, while Cincy wins average to 138 and losses to 62
Buffalo - excellent record, but only 7 total Q1/Q2 wins, with a Q3 loss.
Iowa State - definitely an excellent team, with tons of Q1/Q2 wins, but 10-11 total between the the two quadrants, no bad losses.

If we get seeded higher than any of the above, I feel like it would be because we're a 6.

03-12-2019, 12:48 PM	#52
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,395	With Wofford now done for the season, I think they're looking pretty good for a 6 seed. They are now 3-4 in Q1 and 6-0 in Q2 with no bad losses. Compare that to our 4-4 in Q1, 6-1 in Q2 with a bad loss. Plus, Wofford is 14 in NET, 15 in BPI and 18 in Kenpom. Each of those is considerably better than us.

03-12-2019, 01:55 PM	#53
ThomasMac Member Join Date: Dec 2015 Posts: 81	Lunardi has us as a 7 seed against Oklahoma with the winner playing LSU. This would be ideal if we do end up a 7 seed. With the potential to play a 2 seed going through that kind of turmoil, I'll take that any day. http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...l/bracketology

03-15-2019, 10:54 PM	#55
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,395	With our seeding competition doing very well, I think a 6 seed is now only possible if we win the AAC tourney. Even if we do we might still get a 7.

03-16-2019, 10:01 AM	#58
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,395	March 16 bracketology update per Dave Ommen (Q1,Q2,Q3/4 loss) 6 Iowa St (7-7,3-4,0) 6 Maryland (6-8,6-1,1) 6 Auburn (3-7,12-2,0) 6 Cincinnati (4-4,7-1,1) 7 Nevada (1-1,7-1,2) 7 Buffalo (2-1,5-1,1) 7 Wofford (3-4,6-0,0) 7 Louisville (4-11,5-1,1) Still clinging to a 6 seed. Nevada fell from a 5 all the way to a 7 with their loss. Wofford seems underseeded to me. Their resume looks better than most of the 6 seeds to my eye.

03-16-2019, 10:17 AM	#59
sedziobs Senior Moderator Join Date: Jan 2018 Posts: 2,395	There have been so many bid stealers this year that a few more would force a 10 seed matchup in the First Four. San Diego St, Bowling Green, Oregon, and possibly Grand Canyon, Memphis or Wichita St could make that happen. I assume they are still abiding by the rule that conference champs cannot be in a play-in game (other than the 16 seeds). So we could potentially play the winner of a First Four game whether we are a 6 or a 7.

03-16-2019, 11:30 AM	#60
kskenyon4 Elite Member Join Date: Nov 2014 Posts: 520	Fascinated to see where we're seeded compared to the below teams, if we beat Wich St, and lose to Houston. We would have 12 Q1/Q2 wins, one poor loss. How does the committee treat that compared to: Marquette - lower NET, more Q1/Q2 wins, but lost 5 of last 6. Nevada - slightly higher NET, less Q1/Q2 wins, 2 Q3 losses so equal treatment for losses. If you look at their average NET rankings in wins and losses, Cincy is far superior - their average win is over 154, and losses to 112, while Cincy wins average to 138 and losses to 62 Buffalo - excellent record, but only 7 total Q1/Q2 wins, with a Q3 loss. Iowa State - definitely an excellent team, with tons of Q1/Q2 wins, but 10-11 total between the the two quadrants, no bad losses. If we get seeded higher than any of the above, I feel like it would be because we're a 6.