Bracketology

[jtsladder@aol.com]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

You're probably thinking of Furman, but they are 46 in the NET. They also lost at Penn. Both are Q2 games.

Yes. I guess not East Carolina bad but both were home nonetheless.

[Quadri's #1 fan]

Originally Posted by jtsladder@aol.com

Yes. I guess not East Carolina bad but both were home nonetheless.

They're not even close to as bad.

[sedziobs]

Torvik has us as a 7 seed right now. His Teamcast says we remain a 7 seed if we lose both remaining games or split. If we win both, we move all the way up to a 5 seed. If we win out, including the conference tournament, we can get a 4 seed. So basically anything from a 4 to a 7 seed is in play according to Torvik.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

Torvik has us as a 7 seed right now. His Teamcast says we remain a 7 seed if we lose both remaining games or split. If we win both, we move all the way up to a 5 seed. If we win out, including the conference tournament, we can get a 4 seed. So basically anything from a 4 to a 7 seed is in play according to Torvik.

I think the committee has a lot of the seeding done before the tourney final. It would be interesting to know if we were predicted as a 4 seed if we just make the finals on the Torvik site. Otherwise we might still be in the 5-7 range if there was a lot of weight put on that final game.

I'm kinda hoping for that 6 seed in a good bracket. I think we would have to not only win but win convincingly to move all the way up to a 4 because our metrics are too low and even then the final tourney game may not factor in. I think our cap is a 5 seed if we continue to claw out wins and make the finals. But a lot of that depends on other teams as well.

I just want to see some better overall basketball. We are starting to click on D but we need the offense to get going again.

[sedziobs]

Going to 2-0 and then making the finals gives us a 5 seed, as does going 2-0 and losing in the first round. Going 1-1 and then making the finals gives us a 6 seed.

[waterhead]

Originally Posted by sedziobs

Going to 2-0 and then making the finals gives us a 5 seed, as does going 2-0 and losing in the first round. Going 1-1 and then making the finals gives us a 6 seed.

Thank you

[sedziobs]

Dave Ommen at Bracketville, the top ranked bracketologist on bracketmatrix over the last 5 years, has UC up to a 6 seed. I think I'm going to start using his bracket for tracking games, since bracketmatrix takes a few days to catch up.

[sedziobs]

March 8 bracketology update:
Records are (Q1,Q2,Q3/4 losses).

5 Wisconsin (8-7,5-1,0)
5 Virginia Tech (4-7,6-0,0)
5 Maryland (6-7,6-2,0)
5 Mississippi St (8-6,4-3,0)
6 Villanova (5-5,10-3,0)
6 Iowa St (5-6,5-4,0)
6 Nevada (1-1,7-1,1)
6 Cincinnati (4-3,6-1,1)
7 Buffalo (2-1,4-1,1)
7 Louisville (4-9,4-2,0)
7 Auburn (2-7,11-2,0)
7 Wofford (3-4,4-0,0)

[sedziobs]

End of season seeding according to Dave Ommen:

6 Nevada (1-1,7-1,1)
6 Auburn (3-7,10-2,0)
6 Villanova (5-6,10-3,0)
6 Cincinnati (4-4,6-1,1)
7 Iowa St (5-7,3-4,0)
7 Buffalo (2-1,5-1,1)
7 Wofford (3-4,5-0,0)
7 Louisville (4-10,4-2,0)

Villanova, Iowa St and Louisville have all lost at least 4 of their last 6. So our two Q1 losses to end the season don't really hurt us other than as a missed opportunity.

[sedziobs]

I think if we make the AAC finals we'll likely be a 6 win or lose. Anything less and we'll likely be a 7. Of course other teams making big moves could change things.