Who is exceeding expectations the most?

[david aka the TYZ]

Originally Posted by cincrulz11

can't really compare his ORTG to any of the others because his usage rate is so low. imagine what the other guys would look like if they were never forced to take a shot they didn't want to and only had to take wide open ones.

How many shots do you think players take that they don't want to? We take a few a game late in the shot clock, but other than that everybody is taking shots they want to. And I've seen jenifer take his fair share of shots late in the shot clock, honestly probably second to only Cumberland. Not really sure what you're arguing here.

[cincrulz11]

Originally Posted by david aka the TYZ

How many shots do you think players take that they don't want to? We take a few a game late in the shot clock, but other than that everybody is taking shots they want to. And I've seen jenifer take his fair share of shots late in the shot clock, honestly probably second to only Cumberland. Not really sure what you're arguing here.

just that you can't compare ORTG's of guys with 15% usage rates and 20+. the more you shoot the tougher it is. and if you only shoot 3's and shoot that high of a %, your ORTG is gonna be through the roof.



its not the same for guys that have to create their own shot and beat defenders to get their shots up. kenpom speaks specifically about this, catch and shoot guys are going to have artificially high ORTGs.

[TheRealUC]

Can we add Mick to this list already?

[david aka the TYZ]

Originally Posted by cincrulz11

just that you can't compare ORTG's of guys with 15% usage rates and 20+. the more you shoot the tougher it is. and if you only shoot 3's and shoot that high of a %, your ORTG is gonna be through the roof.



its not the same for guys that have to create their own shot and beat defenders to get their shots up. kenpom speaks specifically about this, catch and shoot guys are going to have artificially high ORTGs.

That makes sense. The way you worded it before I wasnt following. TBH I'm not as big on some of the advanced metrics. I'm a big baseball guy and theres a growing trend towards sabermetrics. While some stats are useful some just seem like they're reaching. Same here with some of the stats. A lot more goes into how effective a player is or isn't than stats can calculate.

[Jon Rycek]

I wouldn’t call 15.8 super low usage, obviously not our primary guy, but that a little below the average secondary player. I’d say he is pretty damn good for us on offense.

[waterhead]

The point of the whole Jenifer ORTG is just to show how he is handling his part however small it is. As I mentioned there are a lot of players in the country and there is only 1 ahead of him with a higher usage. There have also been a lot of Bearcats over that span who have had a low usage...but nobody else has achieved the ORTG that Jenifer has. I think that was a 12 year span that I checked.

There is little doubt his numbers would decline with a higher usage but that wasn't really the point. Bottom line he has performed exceptionally well at his usage rate so far.

I also don't conclude that his ORTG means he would rank in importance anywhere near guys like SK, Cumberland, Clark, Evans, VAughn, Caupain, Wright, Gates, etc. He is simply playing his role very well even if we were hoping he could create a little more. If he had to (at his size) I don't think it would go all that well. Quite frankly I really don't want him doing much more than he is (in terms of scoring) other than getting more good looks for other players.

[waterhead]

As we get into these last 9 games we are going to face Houston twice and UCF twice. I would expect Jenifer to have some troubles with the better defenses and his numbers to slip. I just hope he can still make 1 of 3 three point shots and get some assists from here on out.

On the flip side I would expect Cumberland or Williams not to slip as much. I believe we are going to need to see an uptick from Broome as well. I think those guys have done a pretty good job in the past in bigger games and they will be able to create shots against better defenders. I would like Jenifer to get the ball up the court and facilitate the start of the offense and then hang out at the 3 line.

[ervins84]

Originally Posted by Jon Rycek

I wouldn’t call 15.8 super low usage, obviously not our primary guy, but that a little below the average secondary player. I’d say he is pretty damn good for us on offense.

Kpoms own classification

28+ go to guy
Cumberland is 30.4

Major contributor 24-28
We have none


20-24 significant contributor
Keith Williams 21.6
Cane Broome 23.4


Role player 16-20
Logan Johnson 18.8
Brooks 18.8
Scott 17.1


Limited roles 12-16
Jenifer 15.8
Moore 12.3
Fredericks 15.7

Nearly invisible <12
Eliel 10.4

[Jon Rycek]

Originally Posted by ervins84

Kpoms own classification

28+ go to guy
Cumberland is 30.4

Major contributor 24-28
We have none


20-24 significant contributor
Keith Williams 21.6
Cane Broome 23.4


Role player 16-20
Logan Johnson 18.8
Brooks 18.8
Scott 17.1


Limited roles 12-16
Jenifer 15.8
Moore 12.3
Fredericks 15.7

Nearly invisible <12
Eliel 10.4

So a little lower than I thought, but just below a role player and having that high of an offensive rating is still good

[mdchick]

Originally Posted by ervins84

Kpoms own classification

28+ go to guy
Cumberland is 30.4

Major contributor 24-28
We have none


20-24 significant contributor
Keith Williams 21.6
Cane Broome 23.4


Role player 16-20
Logan Johnson 18.8
Brooks 18.8
Scott 17.1


Limited roles 12-16
Jenifer 15.8
Moore 12.3
Fredericks 15.7

Nearly invisible <12
Eliel 10.4

This is one of those things I look at and say pff to, rashawn fredericks and Justin jenifer have way different roles on this team